That might be true. One thing we are sure about is that the waitlist acceptance rate will go up. I assume that it would be a 10% to 20% increase in the acceptance rate. In case of UCLA, I would assume that near 4700 would enroll in total. So if their target is 6300 there would be around 1600 ( last year was around 1000 seats) seats available for waitlisted students.
@kyz2020 It really is unpredictable. There are multiple angles to view the situation and whatever happens is up to the university. They can either maintain their ratios or, if a significant number of international students canât attend, theyâll manipulate the ratio of IS and OOS theyâll accept off the waitlist. They can also accept international students off the waitlist⊠but what are the chances that theyâre going to be able to attend when others canât? Itâs a complex situation and itâs something that the admissions office are going to need to decide on how to approach. No such thing on this magnitude has ever happened, with slight exception to 9/11. I was trying to look for data from 2002 but it wouldnât have helped either because 9/11 didnât cause a worldwide lockdown and massive economic slowdown. Weâre walking in unmarked territory and itâs crazy to think that we entered this world at such uncertain times and enter the next chapter of our lives with even more uncertainty.
Beautifully put, @waitlistking2020. Logical arguments can be made either way. There are more variables at play than ever before, and Iâm sure we havenât even thought of some major aspects theyâre considering. To me it seems like the only thing that meshes with ALL scenarios is that OOS should have a better chance than usual.
That will depend on the composition of in state and OOS/international students that UCLA ultimately decides upon in the final tally - itâs likely that UCLA will have a higher yield rate for in state and lower yield rate for OOS/intl than past years - which means it may be more difficult for instate waitlisted students to get off the list and the opposite for OOS/intl - especially if UCLA is concerned about revenues from OOS/intl. But we donât know how many were waitlisted in each category and we donât know what UCLAâs plans are - they may see this as an opportunity to increase enrollment for instate students, and serving its state residents is a public universityâs primary objective - so itâs all really conjecture at this point.
All true. And itâs entirely possible that they already adjusted residency ratios before making the initial offers, since COVID-19 was well underway by the 20th. In the end, even if we knew all the general factors, each individual situation is going to be different, with its own odds. Hang in there, guys.
It makes me nervous to be an IS student but I also know that thereâs some other factors in California taking place too.
The worst-case scenario is that the acceptance rate for in-state students remains flat! So no worries!
Timely NYT article: âAfter Coronavirus, Colleges Worry: Will Students Come Back?â
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/us/coronavirus-colleges-universities-admissions.html?
"The (American Council on Education trade group) predicted in an April 9 letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that college enrollment for the next academic year would drop by 15 percent, including 25 percent for international students from countries like China who often pay full tuition, helping universities meet their budgets and afford financial aid for Americans.
ââThe pandemic is striking during the height of the admissions process,â the letter said. âCollege and university leaders are fully expecting significant, potentially unparalleled, declines in enrollment, both from students who do not come back, and those who will never start.ââ
Great news for us 
Sounds like reason for optimism. One thing I realized after posting is that the trade group was basically lobbying for funds, so estimates would be on the high side. But fasten your seatbelts. 
I like how we joined this thread talking about the waitlist but now weâre just talking about the economy. I agree though, enrollment numbers will fall across the board and itâs up to the waitlist to fill that hole.
All related, my friend!
Iâm afraid it might not make much difference for my daughter. Her program runs around 5% admit, so the people who battled to make it in probably arenât as likely to drop it. But keep hope aliveâŠ
These are all very valid points, and itâs gonna be interesting to see how the pandemic affects applicants in the next couple weeks. Given that the predictions are that colleges are turning more to their waitlists should we expect a UCLA acceptance wave before May 1? There was one last yearâŠ
I just posted this on the UCB site. Here is some video from UC President Janet Napolitano from TODAY, talking about what the campuses will look like in the Fall. Online learning almost certainly in play. Double and triple dorm rooms unlikely. Outlook is a very different, non-traditional semester, maybe even entire year. My guess is that youâll be at home for much of the year.
@scrambro Heartbreaking.
@shdjdgd, per your quote in #235:
Re B-1, whether Cal is âa better school,â is certainly subjective, but actually UCLA last academic year (for the 2019 cohort) outdrew Cal for cross-admits for the first time: Cal enrolled 1,527 of UCLAâs 13,720 admits or 11.1%, and UCLA enrolled 1,670 of Calâs 14,277 admits or 11.7% of them. They certainly end up eroding each otherâs yields quite a bit.
In past years â letâs say five years ago, Cal would have indeed outdrawn in cross-admits by a good 2-3 percentage points. I think it will be interesting to see how they fare against each other for 2020.
Re B-2, Yale v. UCLA, it depends on if the student is, say, an engineering/computer science major. UCLA will occasionally reject a prospective E/CS major which Yale will accept. The reason is because of UCLAâs stepped-up basis for admitting to E/CS, with the enrolled having a median 4.0/4.6+/1,520-30 for uwgpa/wgpa/SAT. For 2020 there have been some students as seen in social media who were rejected at UCLA but accepted at Yale. Generally, though I would agree with you, e.g., for social sciences, etc., over which Yale, of course has mastery. Generally, though, those who apply to both wouldnât really involve E/CS all that often.
Re B-3, I would think so too. However, there might be some who stay in-state or stay in their region, say, northeast or west, because of Covid. In 2019, UCLA had a 53% acceptance rate for CA residents, 25% for OOS, and I think it was 35% for Internationals. Itâll be interesting to see what these will be this year because of the virus. But additionally, last year UCLA took I think it was 5,920 freshmen, but this year itâs taking a bit more than 6,300. With the possible lower yields outside of the west because of Covid and the greater number of freshmen to be admitted, the numbers of students will certainly increase and Iâm assuming the acceptance rates will too certainly for OOS and probably CA residents.
Edit: per your quote in #240:
But it wonât be that high.
This was also a great news
Off topicâŠ
With respect to Coronavirus, Iâve been tracking the following link everyday for about a month:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
and thereâs a tab for the countries around the world. Obviously the U.S. has taken over from Italy and Spain as being the hardest hit (by far) of all the worldâs nations.
There are still 585k unresolved cases who still have the disease as of today, and the daily rate of those who perish is starting to pick up, with a horrendous day on April 14th. But one glimmer of hope is the number of new daily cases is flattening per the second graph, with a slight decline. Obviously we need to get that effectively to zero as soon as possible.
Who would have thought that the triple- and even double-occupant dorms would be knocked out by this virus? And I donât see how in-person instruction can occur for the fall term. Hope Iâm wrong.
I feel like this information should be posted on other threads too⊠because itâs not only affecting the waitlist but the whole UC system.
So where have you guys SIRâed to as of now?