UCSB Chances? thoughts?

Colleges and Universities A-Z University of California - Santa Barbara
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Hello all, I am currently a high school senior and my number 1 school is UCSB, and I had a few questions about admission.
(Also I apologize I posted this under the UCSB thread but realized this thread is probably better, I tried to delete the post in the UCSB thread, but I couldn’t find that option, my apologies :/)

I have been honestly doubting myself as to whether I can get in or not. I filled out the UC app hoping I would get accepted. I’m just worried. Could anyone offer me maybe some good feedback to see if I’m a good candidate for SB or not?

I am a California resident

SAT w/ Essay 1250/1600
Essay portion: 24 (8-6-8)
GPA weighted: 3.94
I have over 120+ hours in community service in hs
I’m the first generation to attend college in my family

I’ve taken over 15 UC approved honors/AP courses

I’ve passed AP Language and AP Psychology AP exams with a “3”.

My senior year as it stands:
Physics CP - B
AP Calculus AB - B-
Spanish 4 - A
Advanced Choir - A
AP English Lit Comp - B
AP US Government - A-

I’m simply worried about getting a C in AP Calc this semester and getting a D next semester. I took Calculus AB without taking PreCalculus at school. I explained in my UC App that I didn’t have help writing the essays except proofreading by my mom, and that a lot of my friends have their college counselors but my family couldn’t afford it and we couldn’t afford SAT or ACT tutors. I really want to be accepted to UCSB, it’s my dream school in all honesty. Thanks guys!

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Intended major?

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Mathematics and my secondary is Mathematics in college of creative studies

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(I just realized I typed my SAT writing score incorrectly, it’s a 22, but I accidentally put 24, my bad.)

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Just based on your stats, your UC GPA and SAT scores are below the 25th percentile.

UC capped weighted GPA 25ht-75th percentile: 3.96 - 4.25

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 (capped weighted):
UCSB: 54%

25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:

UCSB: 1290-1450

UCSB does put more emphasis on your EC’s and essays vs. other UC’s, but I think the decision will go either way 50/50 at this point. I hope you applied to several other schools and you have at least one solid safety. Best of luck and prove me wrong.

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Also keep into consideration that UCSB had record high number for apllicants this year. UCLA, UC Irvine, and UCSB were the most applied to campuses this year.

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@ironweasal ~ interesting info. Just curious, is that available on the UC site somewhere? I’d be curious to know where the other UCs fall in order of applicants this year.

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@Twinmma: Here is the UC application information

http://ucop.edu/institutional-research-academic-planning/_files/factsheets/2018/fall-2018-information-summary.pdf

http://ucop.edu/institutional-research-academic-planning/_files/factsheets/2018/fall-2018-applications-table1.pdf