<p>sfbaykid, your choice is crystal clear. </p>
<p>First, some background. You’re part of one of the largest frosh classes in US history. They’re not making any more spaces in med schools, so even if the same percentage of kids apply that usually do, the competition will be tougher. Recently about 45% of kids applying to med school got accepted, so the chances of rejection are very real. And it gets even worse. Turns out that med school apps mirror the economy after a delay. If the economy goes bad, juniors and seniors can’t decide “forget about Wall Street; I’ll go to med school” because it takes a couple of years to get thru the premed requirements. So the spike in apps shows up in force 2+ years after the economy tanks. Well, guess what? Everyone and their brother knows the economy is horrible right now, and is worried about what they’ll do after college. So I’d expect the acceptance rate to fall into the 30’s like it has during past hard times.</p>
<p>Now back to your clear decision. It’s UCI. What you’ve written is a variant of Pacal’s wager. As for outcomes, look at it this way. Go to UCSB and get into med school, its win-win. You went to the place with the better vibe, you’re going to be a doctor. But what if you don’t get in? The rest of your life will be haunted by the thought that maybe you COULD have been a doctor if you had gone to UCI. </p>
<p>On the other hand, suppose you go to UCI. Get in, and you’ll never know if it gave you the edge that got you in, but its at least possible. Don’t get in, at least you’ll know you did absolutely everything possible to try.</p>