UMass Amherst Spring Waitlist- How likely to get accepted?

Hello, I was offered a position on the waitlist at UMass Amherst and chose the “both” option, so I could be considered for both fall and spring semester.

I am waiting to hear back for the spring semester option, and was wondering how likely it is for a student to be accepted from the waitlist for spring semester? I’ve seen on a few forums that it’s basically guaranteed and used to be guaranteed as recently as 2017. Maybe I’m just overthinking it, but I want to be as realistic as possible and weigh my options.

Has anyone been accepted off of the waitlist for the spring semester at Umass Amherst, or does anyone know how likely I am to get in?

Thank you!