<p>Musicalthtrmom, I got all of the numbers for the voice programs that my son was investigating, and UMich actually was over 20% from the data I got from some performing arts guides. However, I just got off the phone and asked--you can do the same. and the number from last year is 90 kids offered acceptance out of 342 applied. So you do the math. Out of the 90, you get your 40 something seats, but the guy said it was really more like 50. The difference in your math is yield, and some kids do not end up showing up even if they commit. Or they switch within the year. Lots of things happen. This number is in line with Northwestern's 20 something % and U of Indiana's 20% with Bloomingon having the lowest percentage. I never got the true MT percentages, but 5-8% is a bit low. They do have a yield issue, and my guess would be 10-12%, though this year they may go lower since the last two years they ended up with more than the targeted kids. Brent Wagner is the one who said those exact words :"yield issue" and "we fight over all of the same kids" when the question about what the % accepted was for MT. </p>
<p>Not that any of this is specific to a given student. Females are outnumbered in vocal performance which means that if you have a daughter with a voice type that is more represented in the auditioners she may well have a 12% chance. </p>
<p>These numbers are still not exactly accurate because in the 342 who applied, some pulled their apps before they were accepted, some never auditioned, some applied to dual programs. They are not separated out. That is why to get all the voices they want, they need extra beyond the target. If you look at CMU's MT roster, you will not find a single year where they have the 10 kids they say they accept. They have 9-17. So none of the numbers they give are exactly right either as you have kids applying to more than one school there also. It is not that simple to come up with the % accepted, but the guy who answered the phone gave me these numbers. The overall average for the school of music is 36%, significantly lower than the school average of over 50%. As you narrow the grid down to your particular situation,though , any of these numbers are useless as for you it is either 100% or 0.</p>