UNC Chapel Hill 2021 Chance Me

I applied to UNC early action and want an honest opinion as to if I can get in or not.

OOS: NJ
ACT: 34 Superscore, 36 English, 34 Math, 32 Reading, 32 Science
SAT: not reported
UW GPA: 3.77/4
W GPA: 3.96
Rank: school does not rank
AP Exams: Bio 4, Spanish 4

Senior year course load:
AP Lang
AP Gov
AP Calc AB
Physics
Organic Chem
Sociology
Spanish electives

Junior year course load:
AP Bio
AP Spanish
AP US History
English
Pre Calc Adv

In total 6 APs 5 Honors (all of HS)
Strong essays
No connections: mom an immigrant who did not attend college, dad attended a different school

Our OOS high school usually has a couple of students admitted each year to UNC-CH; and, with the exception of legacy students, our admitted students have SAT scores of 1350+, ACT scores of 34+, and weighted GPAs of 4.5+ on a 5.0 scale. Other kids in our city who I know were admitted to UNC-CH recently have also had similar statistics; and all of these kids were “unhooked” in admissions parlance (i.e., not a recruited D-1 athlete, or URM, first-generation college student, etc.).

If you look at the UNC-CH common data set, under Part C7 it states that standardized test scores, application essay, letter(s) of recommendation, and rigor of your high school record are “very important” academic factors considered for freshman admission, whereas GPA and class rank are “important” academic factors considered for freshman admission. Extracurricular activities, talent, and character/personal qualities are considered as “very important” non-academic factors.

Your ACT scores are in the ballpark, but your GPA is low for OOS students. Even with good essays and letters of recommendation, I don’t know that you make the cut, just based on your objective criteria.

As you may know, admission of OOS students is very competitive; and UNC admits OOS applicants in numbers that are calculated not to exceed 18% of an entering freshman class. See “Undergraduate Admissions” on Page 2, here: http://www.admissions.unc.edu/files/2013/09/Admissions__Policy.pdf. The actual admission rate last year for OOS students was 15%: http://admissions.unc.edu/apply/class-profile-2/.