@ApplyingNC: To get a general estimate of likelihood of acceptance, go to the common data set for the schools you are interested in, including the ones that you mention above (just go to the school’s website and type in the words “common data set” in the search box; you should get a link to the school’s office of institutional research, or something like that, from where you can click on the annual common data sets).
Once you are in the common data set that you wish to examine, Part C7 tells you what admission factors the school considers to be “very important,” “important,” “considered,” and “not considered” (and the relative importance can vary from school to school). If you look at the common data set for UNC-CH, for example, Part C7 tells you that that standardized test scores, application essay(s), letter(s) of recommendation, and the rigor of your high school record are “very important” academic factors considered for freshman admission, whereas GPA and class rank are “important” academic factors considered for freshman admission. Extracurricular activities, talent, and character/personal qualities are considered as “very important” non-academic factors.
Further, Part C9 of the common data set gives the median 50% for both SAT and ACT scores, as well as the percentage of the entering first-year class falling within certain ranges of SAT and ACT scores; Part C11 gives the percentage of entering first-year students falling within a range of unweighted GPA on a 4.0 scale, and Part C12 gives the average high school GPA of first-year applicants.
If your daughter falls above the 75th percentile of ACT/SAT scores, and is high in the GPA categories, then she is probably going to be a “match” or better for that school.
In North Carolina, I would look at some of the other UNC System schools, such as UNC-Wilmington, UNC-Asheville, UNC-Charlotte, and UNC-Greensboro, as well as Appalachian State. If you haven’t done so already, I recommend that you and your daughter meet with her high school’s guidance counselor to discuss possible college options, as well as admission strategies.
I will send you a PM later.