Certainly the admissions office can release however they want at any time but demonstrated historic trends save one outlier year has main releases on/around 2/1, 3/1 and 4/1. I would assume they space it out this way for a reason: offer to top candidates, see who commits; move on to the next tier down of candidates, see who commits, and so on.
Given the massive #s of applications, candidates who may have been accepted EA just a few years ago are now borderline candidates in this era of 65K+ applications per Class of 2023 applicant pool.
It’s fair to say that one’s chances of an acceptance diminishes with each subsequent release - that’s just the reality.
Doesn’t mean there aren’t bright kids who would do well/thrive at Michigan if admitted…just that they’re unlikely to be admitted given the competitive nature of this current application cukture/season/era.
@projectmgr - or it means that the probability of your acceptance in the next round has just increased 
Think positive!
“I would assume they space it out this way for a reason: offer to top candidates, see who commits; move on to the next tier down of candidates, see who commits, and so on.”
I wondered about that too, @projectmgr. My only question is whether a significant percentage of students who get in but also get in elsewhere don’t commit one way or the other until much later. I suppose nearly all of the ED applicants to other schools do, but for middle-class students like my son who need to compare FA offers, I wonder if a pretty big percentage hold out until at least April 1, if not closer to May 1.
UM is my son’s first choice, but even if he got in today, I’m sure we would want to wait to hear back from Chicago, Vanderbilt, Northwestern, and a few other reach schools–just in case they make him an offer he (we) can’t refuse.
I wonder, too, whether the idea that they start with “top candidates and work their way down” means something much different to UM Admissions than it does to the typical student/parent posting here (who usually define “top candidates” as those with the strongest stats).
Would it be fair to assume UM Admissions has a bunch of targets for their first round of acceptances–maybe a certain number of admits in every major/program, students from various “pipelines,” maybe students who went through a summer program (say, for high-achieving students from Detroit), students from all 50 states, etc.?
I’m totally guessing, but it does seem like the stats of those admitted EA this year were all over the map, and by no means only “top tier” in terms of scores/GPA.
I’d definitely check your portal tonight (Fridays after midnight EST), look for the early disappearing decision tab (although students have been accepted w/o the missing tab). You just never know.
One thing I did note, was that I would see a decision or two on weird/odd days like a Tuesday, for example. They were extremely rare, but it did happen post-decision wave. Almost like “Oops, we forgot this one.”
@projectmgr says it more eloquently than I, but I agree. I gotta work on my people skills. 
@Nhatrang My kid didn’t bother applying for merit, other than a few schools would offer auto merit. Just WAY too tired of all the essays and questions. Totally burnt out.
I wish everyone the best of luck.
My OOS kid held out until late April, IIRC. But I assume the in-state kids have a very high yield and that’s why I noticed, a very low % of in-state acceptances in the RD/EA deferred waves. Roughly 10-20% of the acceptances in the RD/EA deferred waves were in-state, so the waves consisted predominantly of OOS students.
Yield is obviously very important to UMich and I think they look at the historical record of the HS.
My son like waited to the last minute to decide two years ago. So yes, lots of students wait to May 1st to make their decisions. Michigan and other schools “must” have an idea of how to factor this in. This must be the reason to wait a month between waves so they can recalculate the spots and potential acceptances based on years past etc.
Just checked my portal and my decision tab is still there. Hoping some decisions get released today since i dont want to wait a month or more. we’ll see
@TwoHearted - I agree with you in that whether the review is holistic or purely formula (stats) driven, simple math dictates that the odds of an acceptance for an applicant are further reduced with each subsequent decision release wave.
Ie - if 8,000 acceptances were issued in Wave 1 in December out of ~40K applications (20% chance of acceptance), then the odds of the remaining 32K who were deferred + estimated RD pool (25k additional apps) drop to 14% (assuming there only 8,000 more acceptances to be issued from this point forward).
Granted - not all applicants are created equal: a student with a 4.0 Michigan GPA and a 1600 likely has a better chance than an applicant with a 3.7 and a 1420; but with so many highly qualified applicants, I’m guessing there’s not much differentiation amongst the top 8,000 applicants of the remaining 57K (estimated).
@sushiritto - your posts continue to be helpful, insightful and very much appreciated! Your people skills are excellent (!)
@projectmgr… Interesting statistics but I really don’t think they pick from best stats downward. Yes, I think they want a certain amount of high Stat kids but they do truly have holistic reviews. That is why we constantly see lower act/sat kids or lower GPA kids getting accepted. There must be something in their essays etc that give them that edge. As you stated that the remaining kids could have actually similar stats to me makes the essays that much more important then one would actually think.
@Knowsstuff - for our daughter’s sake, I hope you’re right ?
No doubt there are plenty of non-GPA, non-test score factors they consider per the most recent common data set, I’m just not sure that those other considerations are enough to overcome a 40-point gap in a Math SAT score over any of a thousand other OOS kids from a small school in a state who also had good essays, recommendations, demonstrated interest.
In the end - the fact that we’re now closing on 1,000 posts on this thread to talk about deferrals is testament to how highly regarded U Michigan is for students and parents alike.
Wishing everyone here the best in the coming weeks!
So true about the 1000 posts on this thread, @projectmgr – and there are 1701 more on the “University of Michigan Class of 2023 Early Action” thread!
As a Michigan resident, I’ve been surprised that our flagship U is so high on the list for people from all over the country and the world. I feel privileged to be in-state–or at least I will if my son gets in…
I think the stats of this next release will be lower. The universe of high stat students I’m sure dwindles after the initial EA release back in December and the 2/1 RD wave, which I considered high.
As you might suspect, the stats of the 3/2/18 (Class of 2022) release were lower. Less than half the acceptances posted info and most were not complete, thus the sample size is EXTREMELY small:
GPA avg. = 3.9
range 3.76 - 4.00
ACT avg. = 32
range = 28 - 35
SAT avg = 1,500
range = 1,470 - 1,560
@TwoHearted. Michigan is the “best” instate deal like in the country. I grew up there then moved for my profession and now pay OOS fee’s for my son to go there…agh…
I constantly hear kids from Michigan only applying to Michigan, Michigan State and like Wayne and Grand Valley of late. The state has really good schools.
The CC threads are always pretty active for Michigan compared to a lot of other schools.
@Knowsstuff At my kid’s large public school here in NorCal, more kids went to UMich than UC Davis, UCLA and SDSU, individually. And about the same amount as Cal, Stanford and UCSC. I think the only OOS school where more grads went was CU-Boulder.
While the cost is more, you can transfer to engineering or CS easier than the UC’s and LSA allows you change your major more often than your underwear, if desired. :))
Also, if you’re a big “rah rah” sports fan, then the UC’s are trending downward and they’ve never been big time “rah rah” sports schools anyway, at least not like the ACC, Big10 or SEC schools. And then there’s the academics, which are top 5-10 (ish) in a plethora of majors. Medical Center nearby and a huge endowment with lots of resources, which students can easily access. What’s not to like, but for the additional cost?
Anyone’s decision tab disappear? Hoping they release some decisions tonight!
@sushiritto… Didn’t really really realize it to that extent… You sold me… I Wanna go there now but don’t think I would ever get in :))
I am waiting B-)
But not expecting any positive from umich.
Chill…
