UPenn, Caltech, Stanford, etc. Chances for Class of 2020?

NY junior, male, asian
PSAT: 220 (70 CR-80M-71W)
SAT: 710 CR, 770 M, 780 W (retaking in June)
SAT II: 800 Math II, 800 Chem, 800 Physics
GPA: 4.0, no lower than 3.99 after junior year depending on bio
APs: Calc BC (5), Stat - self studied (5), World History (5), Music Theory - self studied essentially (5), Physics B (5), Chemistry (5)

Courseload, pre-high school: Algebra I honors, Geometry honors, Earth Science, French 1
Freshman year: Honors bio, chem, algebra 2 honors, french 2 honors, english, global, comp programming, orchestra, precalc honors (took for credit over the summer)
Sophomore year: AP Calc BC, AP Chem, AP Physics B, Global 10 Honors (AP World), English 10, orchestra, french 3 honors
Junior year: Multivariable calculus (dual credit), AP Physics C, AP Bio, APUSH, AP Lang, health, orchestra, french 4 honors
Expected senior year courses: AP French, AP Environment, AP Gov/Pol, AP/College Econ, AP Lit, orchestra, entrepreneurship/robotics/photo, potentially AP psych (not sure), and taking Linear Algebra at a local college.

Ran cross country every year, will be varsity as a senior
Track freshman year (dropped)
Tennis sophomore year (dropped)

Have played violin since 2004 (+ piano for a bit in there), member of local youth orchestra (best in area) since 8th grade + fourth stand this year in 1st violin. Also won the orchestra’s concerto competition and will be soloing with them in November.
-selected for Area All-State (5 counties) junior level: 7th, 8th, 9th (2nd chair); senior level: 10th (1st chair second violin), 11th grade (5th chair 1st violin)
-All-County orchestra concertmaster 8th grade
-selected for NYS Conference All-State Orchestra as a junior - 4th chair 2nd violin in string orchestra
Working towards a pre-collegiate diploma in music theory at Eastman Community Music School

Extracurriculars:
Math team - captain for 12th grade, A-team member (top 10 in school) since 8th grade (+ in the top 3 of school each year), qualified for states A team (top 15 in county) 9th, 10th, 11th grade, top school county scorer 8th grade/11th grade. Went to national competition 8th, 10th, 11th grade (will go), top scorer on B team in 8th grade and member of A team in 10th grade (entire upstate NY team - top 15 in upstate).
Science olympiad - A team 10th, 11th grade, went to states 9-11th grade, junior year Vice President, likely President senior year. Team finished in top 10 2/3 years (11th recently), and I won a 5th place medal (freshman) and a 9th place (soph) medal at states, plus 5th, 8th, 9th place medals this year as a junior.
Local school chemistry competition winner freshman year (general level), AP winner sophomore year, nominated for school to take National Chem Olympiad test 10th and 11th grade
AMC - qualified for AIME 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th grade
school newspaper - staff member since 9th grade, editor 11th grade (most likely not editor in chief for next year)
Future business leaders of america - 10th grade: 3rd at states in one event, 2nd in another, qualified for nationals. 11th grade: secretary (states has not taken place yet)
DECA - joined 11th grade, won 5th at states and qualified for nationals
Environmental competition - 9th, 10th grade participant: 10th grade won 1st place in presentation, current events, 3rd place team in county
Model UN - one best delegate award

Volunteered at local hospital 30-40 hours/summer after Freshman + sophomore years
hoping for internship over the summer at a local college (or a job, if not)

What are my chances for (12 schools):

UPenn Jerome Fisher M&T Class of 2020, EARLY DECISION
UPenn RD SEAS, or Wharton
Stanford RD
Columbia RD
MIT RD
UChicago RD
Caltech RD
Northwestern RD
Cornell RD
Carnegie Mellon RD
Case Western RD
University of Rochester RD
UPitt rolling admissions

Comment with your opinion on my chances, or with any questions - i’ll add more in comments as it comes up.

likely Nat’l Merit Semifinalist in NYS. No National Honor Society/Mu Alpha Theta + no exact class rank (almost definitely top 10%) because our school got rid of that all. Graduating class 250-300 + quite strong

Honestly, you are a great candidate and if I were a regular I would say that its all a lottery blah blah blah. But you can get into every single one of these schools if you just show that you have a passion for what you want to study in your essay/interviews.
I wish you best of luck.

@thehappypanda, looks good to me, you will likely get in to a number of these. Did you retake the SATs in June? What are you thinking you’d like to major in, and why isn’t Yale RD on your list (yes, I am biased, Yale Class of 2019)? Good luck.

You have stellar credentials, including exceptional achievement in both math and music. Congratulations. You are in a tough demographic bracket, however, and how you position yourself will be key.

A couple of questions:

  • You are looking at applying ED to Jerome Fisher M&T, so engineering-business seems to be your plan. This doesn't come across clearly from your ECs. What is your long term plan, and what is compelling to you about combining engineering with management?
  • How does music fit into your plans? You're doing a lot with it, especially the music theory part.
  • Out of curiosity, I find it very odd that you were 4th stand 1st violin but won a soloist concerto competition with your orchestra.

You’re a contender, but these schools are reaches even for the best. Please apply to safeties and match schools.

Before you commit to applying to UPenn M&T ED, are you aware that UPenn can decline you for M&T and accept you for one of it’s regular non-dual degree programs (i.e. Wharton) and still make you attend? This may be a dealbreaker for ED if M&T is high on your list but Wharton is not (as was my case). Your stats look fine for top tier colleges and I wouldn’t be surprised to see you attending one next year.

@ZeeTee, I was under the impression that when you apply ED to one of Penn’s dual degree programs such as M&T, they give you the option as to whether you would still want to be committed if accepted ED to Penn but not to the dual degree program.

@renaissancedad Oh oops, I just checked the M&T website and you’re correct. When you apply to M&T ED, you have the option of selecting a single degree choice as a backup, and if you do select one, you can decide if you want to apply to it ED (meaning if you do not get M&T ED, you will be considered ED for that UPenn school) or regular.

That’s what I thought. But your general point is a good one. The OP seems like he stands a solid chance of getting in to one or more top schools. M&T certainly qualifies, but it that interest doesn’t stand out clearly from his background, so he should take some time to be certain that is what he wants to do.

Thanks!