http://www.thedp.com/article/2017/08/class-of-2021-yield-rate
The good stuff in the article is on how schools inflate their yield numbers. A great example is Dartmouth - it went from about a 50% yield to a 61% yield in just a couple years.
I think the situation is more nuanced than what the article presents. ED schools definitely inflate their yields with ED, but they are also constrained by the fact that they have to attract top notch students who are willing to commit ED in order to maintain the competitiveness of the student body and thus their ranking. Some ED schools are better at getting top notch students to commit ED than others. Also it is never the case that ED yield is 100%. It is usually around 96%.
The jump in Dartmouth’s yield has more to do with the restructuring of their common app questions, which gave them greater ability to tease out who is a really good fit for Dartmouth. They did not admit a significantly higher portion of their class ED this year compared to last year.
Lastly, in response to the article comments that Penn has a higher yield than Princeton, I would say it is not very meaningful to compare yield rates between the HYPSM group and the group of other elite ED schools. Princeton has SCEA and also the overwhelming majority of the cross admits it loses go to other HYPSM schools.The probability of a Harvard acceptance given that a student has also gotten into Princeton is higher than the probability of a Harvard acceptance given a Penn acceptance. In other words, a higher percentage of Princeton admits has the option of a Harvard or Stanford, compared to Penn pr other top ED schools.
Also it is not meaningful to even compare overall yields between elite ED schools, since they accept different percentages of the class ED. Comparing RD yields between ED elite schools however could yield some meaningful insights. Also if we ever got a chance to look at the stats of the ED applicants pools at each elite school, that would also be interesting. (of course that will never happen though haha…)
I personally find the article rather simplistic in its assessment of the topic.
@Penn95 - you present good analysis, and I agree - the article is overly simplistic. What I enjoyed, though, are the admissions counselors who are finally willing to call a duck a duck - with so many schools with similar yields, yield is no longer a reflection of school popularity, as schools just inflate yield.
Also, re the Dartmouth yield improvement, I actually think you could take the analysis a level deeper. You’re correct that Dartmouth didn’t use ED more heavily this year, but still enjoyed a 8% bump in yield. Yes, the restructured common app questions helped with that, BUT you could also consider a greater point: last year, Dartmouth hired Lee Coffin from Tufts, an admissions counselor famous for “yield protection,” and inflating yield.
You can read alumni analysis of the hire here: http://www.dartblog.com/data/2016/02/012469.php (“Bringing Tufts Syndrome to Hanover, NH”)
It’s important to note, then, that ED isn’t the only way to inflate yield. I believe Mr. Coffin is familiar with other tricks, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he has used them in his first year at Dartmouth, to bump up that yield.
This brings me to my larger point - that we’re in an unfortunate era where schools are trying hard to look very similar to one another. Soon, we’ll have 15-20 schools with sub 10% accept rates and 60%+ yields. Further, school rhetoric and practice is starting to blend together (all schools will grade inflate, all schools praise interdisciplinary options, and the comprehensive research U - even at a place like Dartmouth - is the model to be emulated). It’s never been harder for applicants to distinguish between schools, and that’s unfortunate. Top schools are trying ever harder to be all things to all people - in an attempt to get as many to apply as possible.
Colleges are also getting higher yield because they are accepting more students through ED. For example, U Penn filled 54% of this year’s freshman class through ED.
“Princeton has SCEA and also the overwhelming majority of the cross admits it loses go to other HYPSM schools.”
Probably a majority, but I am not so sure about “overwhelming majority.” Penn, Columbia, Chicago, JHU, Duke, Brown, and maybe Williams are all going to be a better fit and draw some students away from Princeton. Rutgers may get a few for cost. NYU and Lehigh are not far away and may draw a few for specific majors too.