You will have NO WAY of knowing whether Penn will be affordable until Penn sends you a financial aid award.
None of us here know the specifics of your family finances. None of us are Penn finaid Officers.
But I will say…if you get accepted ED, and have an offer for Penn…you will also have a very short window of time to accept their offer. Here is the rub. If you think it’s not enough, and decline…you are DONE with Penn…done.
That Penn offer could have the lowest net price…or it could have the highest…you will never know.
So…say you declined what Penn offer…and all of the others come in at net costs that are HIGHER. You won’t be happy.
Apply regular decision. Then you can compare net costs.
It sounds like your family can’t meet their family contribution…or won’t.