Only you and your parents can decide what is actually affordable for your family. If it isn’t absolutely clear that you can afford UPenn, then don’t apply ED. Heed warning from my experience: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/parents-forum/1938793-having-serious-regret-about-allowing-ed-p1.html. In the end, my D got admitted to Penn and we couldn’t afford it.
The EFC had made it so we could get by with ~$10,000/year in loans. The final FA package came in with an EFC $3300 more than the NPC had predicted. I also think they woefully underestimated the travel costs for an out of state student, and they awarded my D an unrealistically high amount of work study (I confirmed in a parents forum that it would be near impossible to earn the total amount). When it’s all added together, we were looking at $15,000/year in loans based off the FA package. So, the school was completely unaffordable.
Everything worked out in the end and she was awarded several merit scholarships including one that’s a full ride. It was hard to turn down the “dream school” but doing so for graduating with money in the bank instead of $60,000 in debt made the decision a no-brainer.