US financial metldown and engineering

College Majors Engineering Majors
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To those of you who are optimistic about our economy, I'd like to ask you a question: are you guys delusional, or just in denial?

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<p>Recession, not a depression. My musician husband was just able to find a tenure-track position at a university a month or so ago (musicians with jobs? what??). My company is still getting new contracts. Yes, there was a slowdown, but things are already picking back up. The media is way overhyping this, there aren't millions of people out on the streets crying over the fact that they used to be doctors or lawyers and can now hardly feed their children. THAT is a depression. THIS is a recession, and the market isn't nearly as bad as it has been in past recessions-- it's just that banks were stupid and overly risky and now they're paying the price. The rest of us are catching the wake, but most of us aren't starving and homeless. Things aren't good, but they're not dire, and we're not delusional.</p>

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<p>I did not mean to say that the current situation is as bad as the Depression. I was trying to say that the last time things were worse... such and such happened. If you want to argue that there was another period in time that was worse than the current situation other than the Depression, go ahead. I don't know enough about US economic history to debate it in detail. Regardless, the point of my referenced post stands: there will be engineering jobs even in the worst of times.</p>

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To those of you who are optimistic about our economy, I'd like to ask you a question: are you guys delusional, or just in denial?</p>

<p>To most of the people, we are in recession.

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<p>We are neither delusional nor in denial. We are simply adhering to the strict definition of a recession, which is 2 straight quarters of negative GDP growth. We have not had that, nor are we projected to have that. We will have anemic growth, but we are unlikely to have an actual recession.</p>

<p>It doesn't matter what people "feel" that it is. What matters is the definition of the term. Similarly, just because I may feel that I have cancer doesn't mean that I actually have cancer. 6.1% unemployment is actually quite good in historical terms, and extraordinarily good compared to other times when the economy was bad. Those who lived in the Great Depression, or even in the recession of the early 80's would have loved to have had 6.1% unemployment and anemic (but still positive) economic growth. </p>

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If you want to argue that there was another period in time that was worse than the current situation other than the Depression, go ahead.

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<p>That's quite easy: the harsh recession of the early 1980's, when unemployment reached over 10%, the Federal interest rate reached 20% (yes, 20%), and inflation reached over 10%. Heck, a "strong" recovery allowed Reagan to win re-election in a giant landslide in 1984 (winning 49 states), yet that "strong recovery" entailed a drop in unemployment to only 7%, which is still higher than unemployment today.</p>

<p>Early</a> 1980s recession - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia</p>

<p>We could also talk about the stagflation and economic malaise of the 1970's, or the Recession of 1958 that smacked the auto industry hard (unemployment in Detroit hit a whopping 20% at one point). The point is, there simply is no comparison between what is happening now and the far harsher episodes of economic troubles that happened in the recent past. </p>

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Regardless, the point of my referenced post stands: there will be engineering jobs even in the worst of times.

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<p>I agree, and in fact, the oil industry is booming.</p>

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<p>
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It doesn't matter what people "feel" that it is. What matters is the definition of the term. Similarly, just because I may feel that I have cancer doesn't mean that I actually have cancer.

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<p>Actually, in this case, how people feel about current and future economic conditions is pertinent. Whatever you want to call this economic malaise (recession, slowdown, etc.), there is a crisis in confidence that the US economy is going to rebound soon. Thus, increasing numbers of people are reluctant to spend money on things they don't need, and are cutting back in general. As a result, investment slows, new business slows, jobs are cut, etc.</p>

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Actually, in this case, how people feel about current and future economic conditions is pertinent. Whatever you want to call this economic malaise (recession, slowdown, etc.), there is a crisis in confidence that the US economy is going to rebound soon. Thus, increasing numbers of people are reluctant to spend money on things they don't need, and are cutting back in general. As a result, investment slows, new business slows, jobs are cut, etc.

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<p>Sure, but at the end of the day, we still don't have a recession, for a recession is strictly defined to be 2 straight quarters of negative growth. We haven't had that yet. We've seen anemic growth, but not 2 straight quarters of negative growth. </p>

<p>I've said it before and I'll say it again. The second quarter saw 3.3% growth, which is outstanding growth. Granted, it was probably a one-off due to the tax rebates. But so what? It's still strong growth.</p>

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Sure, but at the end of the day, we still don't have a recession,

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So last night WaMu failed... still feeling confidence in future economy, as in there won't be US financial meltdown?</p>

<p>This just reminds me of the 1997 asian financial crisis.
O well... I guess this will be the second time in my lifetime I will experience financial crisis...</p>

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<p>I'm <em>with</em> WaMu and I'm still unconcerned. This too shall pass.</p>

<p>If I were older, if I were about to have to rely on my 401K for living expenses, I'd be more concerned. We're all too young to do anything but ride out the waves as they ripple through all industries. This is not as big of a deal as the media is making it.</p>

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If I were older, if I were about to have to rely on my 401K for living expenses, I'd be more concerned. We're all too young to do anything but ride out the waves as they ripple through all industries. This is not as big of a deal as the media is making it.

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<p>Some of us here are older. Some of us are hoping we will have some money to live off of in retirement, and are concerned that our livelihoods are threatened by a failure of the financial markets, among other things.</p>

<p>But all this aside, even younger people should be concerned about the economic downturn, IMO. Sure, it will pass (someday). But will every engineer be able to ride the wave? I remember in the late 1980s, there was a big slowdown in the aerospace industry in SoCal because of a reduction in defense spending, among other things. Lots of big engineering defense companies suffered. Lots of bright, talented, high achievers lost jobs. Some had to leave the engineering profession for whatever would pay the bills, even if it meant a cut in pay. Even the people who weren't laid off suffered, because they had to pick up the slack of other people who used to be working.</p>

<p>I never said that people shouldn't major in engineering or choose it as a career. However I think people should make backup plans in case of un- or underemployment.</p>

<p>Think of it as an engineering problem - shouldn't engineers consider their financial futures in the same light as any other engineering project they work on?</p>

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So last night WaMu failed... still feeling confidence in future economy, as in there won't be US financial meltdown?

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<p>Sure, I'm confident there won't be a financial meltdown. You may have noticed that the WaMu failure involved precisely zero taxpayer and/or FDIC funds. The shareholders and debtholders were wiped out (as they should be), but the entire firm's operating structure were basically handed over to JP Morgan for a relatively low price. </p>

<p>I think we need to keep in mind that a dynamic economy actually requires that some firms go bankrupt. A dynamic free market is not a profit-*oriented system. Rather, it is really a *profit-and-loss-oriented system, where some firms are supposed to lose. A 'free market' where nobody ever fails is not really a free market, just like a "sport" where nobody ever loses would not really be a sport. We went through an unnatural period during the last few years where no financial institutions were failing. </p>

<p>Think of it this way. During the early 2000's, thousands of technology firms failed during the dotcom bust. But technology innovation and entrepreneurship proceeded apace. For example, it is still mind-boggling to think that companies like YouTube and Facebook didn't even exist until just a few years ago and now they're among the most popular consumer applications in the world. The Internet as a technological system certainly didn't melt down just because many of the dotcoms failed.</p>

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Some of us here are older. Some of us are hoping we will have some money to live off of in retirement, and are concerned that our livelihoods are threatened by a failure of the financial markets, among other things.

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Don't worry. We can always go to that 3rd world country for a fraction of cost of living here... As a matter of fact, that's what I'm planning to do when I retire... :p</p>

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<p>I'm not saying there aren't going to be hardships, and I'm not saying I'm not watching things intently. I'm in construction, of course I'm keeping an eye on things. New construction is the first thing to go out the window in times of financial troubles. Everyone should have an emergency fund, and everyone should have backup plans even in a strong market. You never know what'll happen.</p>

<p>I'm saying that a large part of the problem is knee-jerk reactions and fearmongering, and using words like "crisis" and "meltdown" isn't productive. It's contributing to the problem.</p>

<p>Yes, things are going to be difficult. They may be <em>very</em> difficult for many of us. Having been through not an insignificant string of life difficulties, I know that no matter how painful things get, bad stuff has to end eventually. There's just no sense in freaking everyone out about the bad stuff that <em>does</em> happen.</p>

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<p>First, this in NOT a depression. Learn economics before you make such statements.</p>

<p>Second, GE stock is tanking, the CEO is a fool.</p>

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<p>I was told to "learn economics" the last time I tried to bring up a discussion regarding a financial meltdown or even the possibility of a recession.</p>

<p>This was when market was hovering around 12,000. Today, 9 weeks after the discussion, market is hovering around 8,000 in downward trend. 11 developed countries, including japan, EU, and others have declared recession, and possibly a long and painful one.</p>

<p>After 9 weeks of worsening unemployment rate, bailout and more bad stuff, how do you think engineering profession will survive this storm?
Where do you think will happen several months from today?</p>

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<p>I think all of us know that the economy isn't doing well, and that it will probably get worse in the time to come. The question about how engineering will fare though is a vague one. First of all, I don't think there is any question about whether engineering will SURVIVE it or not. Engineering has always existed and it will exist forevermore.</p>

<p>All jobs (this includes engineering almost entirely) are always affected by market conditions, so the best we can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. As far as the future of engineering is concerned, I don't think there is any doubt that it is going to be bright... though it always has been and always will be troubled by short term difficulties. </p>

<p>As far as the question of how well engineering will do relative to other professions... I can't really say. However, I think that the situation for engineers will STILL be better than a huge majority of the population.</p>

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<p>In the early 70's during one of the recessions (worse than the one today so far), engineering jobs and technical jobs in general were a lot harder to come by than other professions.</p>

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<p>I think we're all going to be living in makeshift tents six months from now, and that our entire financial system will have collapsed. Services will be traded through a barter system, and our currency will consist of pretty rocks and leftover hand soap.</p>

<p>I recommend you swipe the extra bars of Dial the next time you travel.</p>

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<p>
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In the early 70's during one of the recessions (worse than the one today so far), engineering jobs and technical jobs in general were a lot harder to come by than other professions.

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<p>The jobs were hard to keep too. I started work in the late '70s. My friends and I had many interviews and offers, and got good starting salaries. The older guys I worked with, by contrast, were still shell-shocked from the many, many years they had spent barely hanging on to their jobs. They worked overtime for free, knowing that if they didn't work hard for contracts they wouldn't have jobs. At one point, after twiddling his thumbs for some time, one fellow went home and told them to call him when they had something for him to do. They were not optimistic, and very tenuous about prospects. It was a shock to see how negative they were, especially compared to the attitudes of we new grads.</p>

<p>Times may get that bad again. I suspect most engineers today don't remember times that bad.</p>

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<p>Time to buy that AR-15 and a few thousand rounds of ammo that I always wanted. The only question is to get the grenade launcher.</p>

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<p>That's the spirit, Payne!</p>

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<p>All hail the Amero!</p>