US News is releasing its annual rankings on Tuesday: https://www.usnews.com/education/blogs/college-rankings-blog/articles/2017-08-22/watch-for-2018-best-colleges-rankings-on-sept-12
Thoughts? Predictions? Any unexpected changes happening this year?
for LACS: I predict based on their ranking scheme in this order: Pomona, Williams, Amherst, Swarthmore, 5th: Wellesley, Midd and Bowdoin (tied for 5th), Colby (8th).
I also predict that finally USNWR will finally get it right in 2018 in regard to research universities: Stanford, UC Berkeley, Cal Tech, MIT, then Princeton tied with Harvard…
Based on statistical factors (excepting a methodology change), colleges will be restricted to certain highly likely ranges (as simply another prediction):
Examples
Williams: 1 (no range, and a near certainty)
Pomona: 6-10
Colby: 11-21
Wesleyan: 12-23
Bates: 23-35
They revealed the top 10 LACs and public universities.
LACs-
Amherst College (MA)
Bowdoin College (ME)
Carleton College (MN)
Claremont McKenna College (CA)
Davidson College (NC)
Middlebury College (VT)
Pomona College (CA)
Swarthmore College (PA)
Washington and Lee University (VA)
Wellesley College (MA)
Williams College (MA)
Public Universities-
College of William & Mary (VA)
Georgia Institute of Technology
University of California—Berkeley
University of California—Irvine
University of California—Los Angeles
University of California—San Diego
University of California—Santa Barbara
University of Florida
University of Michigan—Ann Arbor
University of North Carolina—Chapel Hill
University of Virginia
The only newcomers are Washington and Lee (ranked #11 last year) and University of Florida (ranked #14 last year). UC Davis, UIUC, and UW-Madison have left the top 10 from last year. Every other school was also ranked in the top 10 last year.
The short story- don’t expect any drastic changes. My predictions for the top 25:
Universities: Princeton (1), Harvard (2), U’Chicago (3), Yale (4), Columbia (5), Stanford (5), MIT (7), Duke (8), UPenn (8), Northwestern (10), Johns Hopkins (11), Dartmouth (12), Caltech (12), Brown (14), Cornell (15), Vanderbilt (15), Rice (17), Notre Dame (17), WashU (17), Emory (20), Georgetown (20), UC Berkeley (20), UCLA (23), USC (23), Carnegie Mellon (25), UVA (25)
LACs: Williams (1), Amherst (2), Wellesley (3), Swarthmore (3), Middlebury (5), Bowdoin (5), Pomona (7), Carleton (8), Claremont McKenna (8), Davidson (10), Washington and Lee (10), Colby (12), Haverford (12), Vassar (14), Smith (14), Hamilton (14), Colgate (16), USNA (16), Wesleyan (18), Harvey Mudd (18), Grinnell (20), USMA (20), Colorado (22), Scripps (23), Barnard (23), Macalester (25), Oberlin (25)
My guess: UCs slip. We already know that UC Davis has lost ground, since they are no longer listed as a Top Ten Public. But other UCs will probably be affected as well.
The University of California system recently began a significant multiyear enrollment expansion, which means they have been admitting larger numbers of applicants (mostly in-staters). It may seem like the acceptance rates at top universities fall every year, while the test scores rise. But the opposite happened at UCs between Fall 2015 and Fall 2016: the acceptance rates rose and the test scores fell, as the enrollment increase got underway. The less favorable Fall 2016 numbers are the ones that USNWR will be using to calculate the rankings this year.
Applications to the UCs have been steadily increasing, and making room for thousands of additional students is probably the right thing for the UCs to do. But it’s not going to improve their UNSWR “Selectivity Ranks”.
I wouldn’t be surprised if USC, which recently passed UCLA in the rankings, catches up to Berkeley for the first time this year.
Colgate will be a higher rank than Hamilton College
USNews always introduces a wildcard factor to its methodology just to shake things up a bit. This year, I spotted something I never noticed before: Tucked among “Expenditures Per Student” categories they now include something called, “public service”, a possible response to the Washington Monthly poll. The way I read it, this encourages such practices as paying students for what previous generations would have considered volunteer work and further proof that some schools, particularly in the National Liberal Arts College category, simply have more money than they know what to do with.
The way it should be :))
Harvard, MIT
Stanford, Princeton, Yale
Chicago, Duke, Columbia, Caltech
… the rest
Disclaimer: this post is meant to be a joke 
:
Can we raise the temperature of this thread by starting a betting pool on the ranking? That will get people even more fire up.
I would like to see schools like Brown, Notre Dame, or JHU leapfrogging to top 5. Or Yale dropping out of top 5. That would make many CC elite schools alumni heads explode in either joy or agony.
Oh, I have no affiliation with Brown, Notre Dame, JHU or Yale. Those are just random names I pick. You can substitute your own choice of schools for that mental exercise.
Bottom line: no one should take USNWR exact ranking seriously. Your kid won’t get a better job offer just because his/her school goes from 15th rank to 13th rank.
@85bears46 “Your kid won’t get a better job offer just because his/her school goes from 15th rank to 13th rank.”
sacrilege.
Who said anything about the kid’s job? It’s all about how impressed people are with the window decal on my car.
EVERYBODY knows that a school that is ranked n-1 on USnews is better than a school ranked n. And if a school is ranked n-5, then it is way, way, way better than a school ranked n. Believe me. B-leave meee!! Anybody who says otherwise is just pushing fake news.
USNWR rankings are broken if Colby is higher ranked than Hamilton as test scores aren’t close; also having either Colgate or Vassar higher ranked wouldn’t make sense either, but as many of the top-10’s don’t make sense it’s just one more selectively weighted ranking system.
I want to see Michigan break the top 25. It’s honestly a better school than UVa.
@guitar321 I would put Berkeley at #19 and Michigan at #20. I would drop WashU to #23 or #24.
jmho
Agree, Berkeley needs to move up on the list where it belongs.
The USNews ranking is essentially a prestige ranking. It tells you in tiers how prestigious universities are in the United States for undergraduate studies. It is relevant to parents and students if
- The student fits the profile that will make them competitive at some of the top schools where the admit rates are low
and - The parent/student cares about “prestige”
and - The parent/student is willing to pay “full price” to attend college
Otherwise there are many many universities that a student can attend that provide “great education” at acceptable costs where you don’t have to jump through hoops to get admitted.
Once you get past the top 30 or so colleges, a prestige based ranking like the USNews ranking is essentially meaningless. Quibbling about whether a university should be 55 or 65 on a prestige ranking is “laughable”. Who cares?
Universities should care about this ranking only if they are targeting “prestige conscious full pay students”. Otherwise who cares if you are rated 65 or 85? Your mission is totally different and shouldn’t be measured by the metrics that USNews uses.
When School administrators complain or whine about the USNews ranking, what it tells me is that they are “chasing” the above demographics in terms of students, but are miffed that they are not higher on the “prestige” scale. If you are pursuing the above demographics, play the game and stop whining about it. You know what the game is and you know why it is played. Otherwise define your mission accordingly and ignore the USnews ranking. You can’t have it both ways!!
I think there’ll be movement in the 40-80 groups (national university and LAC) because that’s where it’s easier to move schools up or down.