Probably future OOS applicants should understand that the school is much more than a stretch at 25% ED; 16% EA; and 12% RD acceptance rates.
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agree, the numbers are just daunting. . . feel fortunate DD has some acceptances that make her happy but still deferrals out there she’d like more (UVA being one of those). I am glad I did not show her the numbers yet 
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I agree with this. It was made to seem that a deferral would put the applicant on level ground with the rest of the RD, but it actually seems to be a “scarlet letter” and deferred applicants are not considered equally.
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we were advised by great college counselors that UVA is always a reach.that part is not a surprise. DD is a very strong candidate (as they all are) and when deferred- we were told to celebrate b/c that is a high bar to cross but historically, there is a decent shot at acceptance after deferral b/c they don’t defer huge numbers (like Michigan). Looks like that is old information as the admits rates are plummeting for deferred. oh well. maybe we will win this lottery-who knows- because that is what it is for OOS- a lottery.
Good luck to you!!!
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What time results are coming?
I think EA decisions in recent years have come at 5pm Eastern, so maybe RD will be similar
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That is an amazing offer for in state kids!!!
These situations are not unique to UVA…increase in applicants due to test-optional has been dramatic and the uncertainty of COVID has made schools hedge their bets with deferrals/WL.
The overall acceptance rate will be less than 20% this year for the first time, actually 18.7%. It’s never been an easy admit OOS or IS in NOVA and that has only gotten harder.
But if it’s your dream school and you can’t see yourself elsewhere they’ve reinstated the ED option. This shows UVA that you are committed and will reciprocate their offer all other options (EA and RD) don’t.
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waitlisted
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Yes, we can tell you that…Many “top tier” schools see a rise in overall applicant quality in RD…the Selective Early Admissions processes at the Ivies and “tippy top” schools take other kids out of the running when UVA is doing EA/ED…and most of those kids don’t get accepted where they ED…and then they pile into the next tier of schools during RD.
UChicago is a very good example of this, where they care so much about yield that they even created an ED2 option, pushing a large number of deferred EA kids to effectively “commit” before RD, when their odds effectively go to 0% against stronger competition.
The RD crowd, generally speaking, has a higher top end on the distribution…and that’s who the deferred EA/ED kids need to see as the competition for a spot.
Interesting take. I thought the Ivy kids generally applied to the public ivies (UVA, UNC, Georgia Tech, Berkeley, Michigan et al) EA at the same time they are applying to the Ivies or ED schools since there are no restrictions. I know with the increase in applications and increased EA yield RD acceptances have dropped dramatically at several of those schools.
@VirginiaBelle Many of them do apply in the same timeframe to the unrestricted schools…and many of them likely comprise the ones who are accepted EA at the “Public Ivies”…but many of the Ivy EDs don’t, and those who are rejected often end up in the RD pool at a bunch of the other T25 schools. Places like Chicago, who are particularly sensitive about being the second choice date for Ivy ED rejects, focus heavily on yield and almost won’t date anybody that doesn’t say they’re serious about getting married…Some of the Ivy schools, even, only fill half their class with ED, even though they could do more (like Chicago does), because they hope to see an even better pool from the people who applied to other Ivies ED and got deferred or rejected…By the time you move to the T10-25 schools, though, you’re almost certain to see RD applicants at the top end of the pool that are getting consistently stronger than deferred applicants in the ED/EA pools…it’s just math…kids are applying to more schools every year as admissions rates plummet…but they’re plummeting because kids keep applying to more and more schools (the denominator of target class sizes isn’t really changing much, but the denominator of application levels keeps climbing, creating a self-reinforcing fear that keeps kids applying to more the next year)…Anyway, many Ivy/T10 schools, as a result, are looking increasingly at ED as a way to manage yield via certianty on more of their offers becoming acceptances, and not get caught by surprise when too many folks accept when they didn’t really have the space…and a lot of schools in that 10-25 category know that they have to be careful not to over-offer, but also know their yields are challenged right now, because many of the “best” offers they make are also likely to be at the top of other pools too…So they are playing a dangerous game…many of them are managing that game by using deferrals “just in case” their yield falls dramatically, and they need a backup plan.
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thats a great thing for an instate student. Virginia takes care of their instate students better than most states
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So OOS son went from deferral to waitlist offer- kind of torturous at this point, and it’s not the only school this is happening at. I’m scared he will be in the pool of waitlist almost everywhere (pretty much all the ones he is waiting on). This is horrible on the psyche of 17 year olds, especially after the past couple years.
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Worse, now he’s waitlisted and they will want second-semester grades.
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I’m OOS deferred then waitlisted. I was kind of expecting it seeing less than 2% deferred kids getting in. You’d think they should defer less kids EA with seeing the downward trend over the last couple years. But hey that’s competitive college admissions!
Admissions officers are the new DMV. We know it’s not their fault, but we irrationally hate them for the currently horrendous process that is excruciating to the customer.
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Yes…and the other factor we have to acknowledge is that TO creates a whole new realm of uncertainty for the school’s processes…Apps/school for high stat kids are going up as people now reach for schools where test scores would’ve previously had them saving the application fee…that makes the job a lot harder for AOs, and increases the odds substantially that they over-admit kids who will willingly jump on offers…in short, yield volatility is HIGH right now…their response is not unexpected…1) they will continue the trend of leaning more and more heavily on ED to contain risk and fill much of the class with the best mix of talent they can, getting some rock stars, but also having a marginally lower bar for a few hopefuls that have been willing to commit…then use unrestricted RD type rounds to round out the class…hopefully while seeing even stronger pool in those rounds than they saw in ED, and 2) they will use deferrals/waitlists more liberally (esp if they can push kids to an ED2 like Chicago), which buys them flexibility when they see what the yield looks like on their RD class in a time that is very high uncertainty for them. We have to keep in mind that as apps/high stat kid go up, their yields (except at the absolute top) also go down mechanically…and that increases their odds of a “gambler’s ruin” type scenario where they either severely over-yield or under-yield, both of which would be disastrous for them…so they “hedge” their bets with WL and Deferrals.
it’s all one big, horrible, self-reinforcing feedback loop that leads to more and more kids not getting into the schools that are their best fit, and nobody being happy…but it’s hard to stop a cycle like that without a major change in the whole process…until then, the grade inflation that makes having a 4.0UW GPA kinda meaningless anymore at better schools, massive numbers of APs being “standard,” and TO which muddies the water even more, all coupled with increasing apps/student will continue…and WL/Deferrals are the most visible price paid, followed by odd mismatches in kids/schools that didn’t have to happen, and overworked AOs at selective schools, and increased emphasis on feeder schools and schools/counselors having proactive relationships with Admissions to have “behind the scenes conversations,” being just some of hidden costs.
I don’t see anybody trying to get off the treadmill though.
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You mention odd mismatches. I’m wondering how this era of test optional/ test blind will affect outcomes and graduation rates. When one of the only standardized measures to compare students is removed, what will happen? Will these students thrive (I hope so), or will they find out they aren’t quite prepared for the rigor of the T25 schools they find themselves in?
If the latter, then how will schools respond? They won’t want to let their retention rates drop, or be seen as not supportive of their students. So likely, funds will be spent on support and remediation services. That could increase already crazy tuitions. Or the schools will begin to lower standards.
I just don’t see this experiment ending well. I hope I’m wrong. 
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I hope I am wrong also, but I personally don’t see this “experiment” ending well either. I really think you need some objective measures to evaluate students across the country and standardized tests provided that info. I think many students will find themselves unprepared for the rigor of the T25 schools they find themselves in. Anecdotally, I am already receiving some of that feedback from people connected to Michigan, Notre Dame, and Vanderbilt.
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