UVA Transfer Chances

Will chance back if desired

School: College of William and Mary
In-State Student, Applying as a rising sophomore
GPA: 3.30 (hard physics class)
SAT: 2090 (770 CR, 710 Math, 610 Writing)
HS GPA: 3.85 weighted
1 Letter of Recommendation, not very strong
Essays were ok

I know the GPA is a little low for UVA standards, but will being an In-State Student, especially at W&M, and having good test scores at least give me a chance?

Also, SAT IIs were 740 in Lit and 690 in USH