<p>^I think you’ve forgotten the focus of this discussion. We are not talking about applicants, and whether applicants should be admitted. Admissions is a complex process–no one doubts that there’s more behind the numbers, as you’ve shown above.</p>
<p>But we’re asking whether high ACT scores should be used to identify particularly desirable students within the subset of admitted UW applicants. In other words, are high ACT scorers the type of admitted students that we should try and keep from fleeing out of state through merit scholarships?</p>
<p>Now, we could try to separate the UW admits into a bunch of groups like you did for UW applicants. But even the simpler, holistic overview speaks for itself.</p>
<p>Consider this: According to UW (<a href=“http://www.education.wisc.edu/cap/UW...pectations.pdf[/url]”>http://www.education.wisc.edu/cap/UW...pectations.pdf</a>
) 50% of applicants with a (30+ ACT and 3.1-3.3 GPA) get in and 95% of the (30+ ACT applicants get in with a 3.8+GPA).</p>
<p>Meanwhile, 5% of applicants with (24- ACT and 3.1-3.3 GPA) get in and 70% with (24- ACT and 3.8+ GPA) get in.</p>
<p>What does this imply about the the admitted UW students?. It implies that a low ACT scorer needed an extraordinary GPA or unique soft factors to get in, while the high ACT scorers didn’t really need a strong GPA or any special softs.</p>
<p>So, what are we really identifying when we weed out the “top ACT scorers” among UW admits? We’re including a broad array of students. Some of them are extremely unique: they have high ACT scores, high GPAs, and great ECs. But it’s very easy for a high ACT scorer to have had a weak GPA and minimal ECs and still be in this admit pool. Should such a student be targeted as a particularly desirable student among admits? Not really, IMO.</p>
<p>Clearly, there’s some factors that would dismiss such a simple analysis. We don’t know the distribution of GPAs among high ACT scorers. If the number of high ACT, low GPA students is negligible, then the fact that 50% get accepted doesn’t really matter. Likewise, if ACT, GPA, and soft factors are highly correlated (dubious), then high ACT scores sufficiently identify top admits because their other factors are likely exceptional as well. </p>
<p>But I don’t think the above factors are likely. My hunch is that there are a significant number of high ACT, low GPA applicants to UW (as you seemed to hint at above), and that ACT isn’t highly correlated to extracurriculars or GPA (among admits). Thus, I don’t think high ACT scores identify desirable UW Madison admits.</p>