I wouldn’t expect tenured professors to leave “in droves,” but there will be some significant losses, especially from Madison where many of the top faculty have national reputations, and especially in the sciences where top stars can often bring external research funding with them. These people would be welcome just about anywhere. Others seen as rising stars in their fields will have some lateral prospects as well. Most of the faculty at UW campuses other than Madison don’t have that kind of star power, but there will be attrition. With budget uncertainty, resource constraints, and threats to tenure, some may elect to retire earlier than they might have otherwise, and not be replaced, or be replaced by cheaper non-tenure track lecturers or adjuncts. Others may leave for private sector opportunities, Others may beat the bushes for employment at private colleges, or in other states, and some will succeed.
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UW salaries are already fairly low by regional standards. Full professors at UW Madison made on average $123,500 in 2013-14, according to the AAUP faculty salary survey. That’s good for 11th place among Big Ten/CIC schools, barely ahead of Nebraska at $119,000, and trailing Purdue at $130,600, Indiana at $132,600, Michigan State at $135,100, Iowa at $135,300, Minnesota at $136,000, Ohio State at $139,200, Penn State at $140,600, Illinois at $145,000, Michigan at $156,900, and (special case because it’s private) Northwestern at $182,000. Oh, and CIC partner University of Chicago at $210,700. Whatever psychic bonus UW faculty get from living in Madison, at some point the financial penalty will prove too great for some of them, and they’ll look to go where they can be better compensated if they can.
It seems to be the same at the sub-flagship level. UWEC is one of the stronger schools in the UW system, but full professors there make on average just $74,900. This compares to $88,700 at Minnesota State-Mankato, $92,200 at Northern Iowa, $98,500 at Northern Illinois, and $102,000 at Central Michigan, to identify just a few schools in immediately adjacent states.
Wisconsin keeps shooting itself in the foot by draining resources from its public higher education system. If Scott Walker wants to transform UW-Madison from a world-class university, which it is and has long been, into a mediocre one (“good enough”), that’s not hard to accomplish. The harder challenge would be ever to reverse that change once it’s been accomplished.