All models are wrong. Some models are useful. Good thing to remember for ALL things models tell us we need to panic about…
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Preventing severe cases and death had nothing to do with the vaccine EUA in late 2020. The EUA was based entirely on effectiveness of preventing infections.
Even before the vaccine trial results and EUA, the FDA was speaking in terms of effectiveness at preventing infection, saying 50% effectiveness was required.
With so many breakthrough infections, one has to wonder if the vaccine would still merit FDA approval with the new variants.
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Even though there are more infections in vaccinated people than before, the vaccines are still preventing infections, preventing hospitalizations, and saving lives. Data continue to show that vaccinated people also have lower viral loads meaning they are relatively more likely than an unvaccinated person to have a mild case, and less likely to spread the virus.
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Preventing death – which the vaccines are still doing to a very high degree – is a perfectly valid and commonly used endpoint in efficacy studies.
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H heard about two more local hospitalizations today as he was catching up on work after Christmas. One we’re positive wasn’t vaccinated and considering he mowed a certain political figure’s name into his lawn, I suspect politics was a big part of it. The other he doesn’t know very well, so we’re not sure.
Covid is everywhere around here right now. No surprise we’re among the state “leaders” for new cases. Everyone we talk with knows someone who’s died. Most know folks in the hospital now, including us (more than just the two we learned about today). It’s hitting here far worse than it did last year. Considering how severe some folks are getting it, I’m not convinced it’s Omicron all the time. Those I know personally who have tested positive say they have no idea which variant it is.
I think delta is still wrecking rural parts of Michigan also. Our numbers are down some and the local news is reporting no omicron reported here yet.
Feels like tick, tick.
My mom flys home Friday after 2 weeks here, hoping for smooth travels are she’s very nervous traveling these days. She’s boosted and not that worried about Covid (got to die of something SMH)
If labs can’t even keep up with testing, how can they keep up with sequencing? New daily cases just exceeded half a million in the past 24 hours. Any data CDC had become obsolete very quickly.
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Was it a certain political figure who is vaccinated and recently made a public statement in favor of vaccination?
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What @Mwfan1921 said. You have to think about dynamics and situation: in the end, it’s about dose. Given where I am, local vax rates during Christmas break are pretty high. (They plummet when the students come back.) So if I have to dash into an uncrowded store while wearing an N95, I’m in and out without thinking much about, say, eyeball ACE2 receptors. On the other hand, I’m supposed to be getting a permanent crown installed soon, and while my dentist and his assistant are both vaxed and boosted, and mask-wearing is mandatory in the clinic unless you’re being worked on, they’ll both have been around lots of family, at any given time a bunch of people are being worked on with mouths wide open, and I’ll be there in the chair with my own mouth wide open for most of an hour and them breathing right into it through their masks, which are very good but not magical. Omicron replicates beautifully in upper-respiratory cells. The assistant has chronic allergies and is always sniffly. The area’s also low on tests. I have a good stock of them, though, and am considering bringing a couple along and asking them to each do a LFT and come up negative before I get into the chair. If they’re not happy with doing that, I’d understand, but I’d also likely wait for the omicron spike to pass through before going in. Also factoring in: number of positive tests in the area. Could be that locally people are sensible enough – or away visiting other people enough – that it’s a relatively safe bet vs. the odds that the temp crown will fall off and I’ll wind up needing a root canal or extraction.
You live in a low-vax place, no? Omicron’s not a weak variant by any means; it’s just that people who are vaxed/boosted fight it off reasonably well. If you have no immunity, or you got one shot and decided that was plenty, I don’t see any reason to expect a gentle ride. The Dec 19 Imperial paper has it marauding its way through upper respiratory cells, and losing out to delta in lung cells only (hypothesized) because it kills the cells so fast it doesn’t get to replicate as much as delta does.
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I’m getting better at hearing disinfo talking points couched as conversation.
OhiBro, whatcha know about flu vax approvals?
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I work in a medical field sitting in close proximity literally holding someone’s hand for 30 to 45 minutes. I’ll be honest, if one of my patients came in and handed me a test I would politely say “ How about we reschedule for a time when you might feel more comfortable”
I’m sorry, but I just don’t have time in the day to stop and take a test for a patient who is scared. I feel as if you should just proactively cancel and schedule for a time when you are more comfortable. Then they at least have time to fill that appointment slot. Medical and dental offices around here have been very cautious with their safety procedures.
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I get that. I’ll likely ask anyway (ahead of time, of course). If either of them winds up long-term ill, they have people who’ll take care of them. If I get long-term ill, I’m in a world of trouble and so’s my kid. They can always say no.
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From the Sept. 12, 2020 npr article you cited:
“It’s possible that the [COVID-19] vaccine will reduce the severity of disease” in the other 50% who do get sick, says physician Bill Miller of The Ohio State University College of Public Health. "It may mean that people are less likely to be hospitalized, require ICU care or die.
“That’s certainly the case with the influenza vaccine,” Miller adds. “People who get the vaccine may still get the flu, but, for the most part, their disease is milder than if they hadn’t had the vaccine.” Why A COVID-19 Vaccine That's Only 50% Effective Could Still Help Stop The Pandemic : Shots - Health News : NPR
So they weren’t only concerned with preventing people from getting sick, they were also concerned with preventing hospitalization and death; a vaccine which only prevented infection in 50% of the population would still be beneficial if those who were vaccinated but still got sick were “less likely to be hospitalized, require ICU care or die.”
Contrary to your repeated claims, vaccination was never just about preventing infection, it was about slowing the spread and saving lives.
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Thank you for that clear explanation.
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However if you go back to when the conversation started much of the conversation was about the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing Covid and hopefully ending the pandemic. Phizer was 95% vs. Moderna at 94% (speculated). At that time the conversation was not about how the vaccine might reduce the symptoms. People had hoped that it would prevent people who had the vaccine from getting Covid and therefore spreading the disease. The conversation has changed as we have discovered that the vaccine does not prevent people from getting Covid. I am vaccinated (and boostered) because I think it is a good idea for me. However, I cannot use the argument that getting vaccinated is a way to prevent the spread of Covid and ultimately end the pandemic. I think it is a tool to manage Covid but I also think it’s here to stay in one form or another. I am quite convinced that whatever the studies say now new studies may have different findings as we continue forward living with this disease.
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The vaccines were effective at the time in preventing most people from getting infected. However, because too many people in this world either had no access to the vaccines, or chose not to be vaccinated, the virus was able to spread relatively unimpeded and mutate multiple times, reducing the effectiveness of all the vaccines each time. The virus, like everything else in nature, evolves and adapts. The vaccines are still effective at keeping most people from getting seriously ill from the virus, but that effectiveness isn’t guaranteed forever either, if the virus continues to spread and mutate.
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And too soon, unfortunately, we will have a variant that completely escapes any protection from the vaccine.
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For the last 10 pre-pandemic flu seasons, the CDC estimates the effectiveness of the flu vaccines to have been: 39%, 29, 38, 40, 48, 19, 52, 49, 47, and 60.
The CDC also estimates the mRNA vaccines to be 35% effective against Omicron:
“ Data from South Africa and the United Kingdom demonstrate that vaccine effectiveness against infection for two doses of an mRNA vaccine is approximately 35%.”
So, as I said awhile ago, the vaccines are now a bad flu shot. Actually, they’re worse than a bad flu shot. It takes two doses to get to “bad flu shot” level.
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