<p>Hi guys. I was just looking at the links at the UC admission rates by campus, and it seems as if the admission rates have hit record lows once again. This led me to form a really, really crazy theory within my head. If admission rates keep on falling, UC Berkeley and UCLA will probably fall to <15% acceptance rate, UCSD <30%, and so forth. The UC system may be able to sustain this for awhile, but my theory is that eventually the UC system will have to open up more campuses to accommodate the demand. And then once acceptance rates fall even lower, more campuses will have to be opened. It’s like a never-ending game the UCs have to play. My question is, what is the plausibility that this could happen? Will we see more UC campuses in the future, like let’s say UC Eureka LOL? Or will the declining acceptance rates flatten out in the future (like, for example, UC Davis gets pegged around 30%, Merced at 60%, etc.). </p>
<p>Highly unlikely for the foreseeable future. A factor affecting each UC’s admissions rate can be attributed to duplicate applications… that is 1-student applicant applying to multiple campuses. </p>
<p>The number of CA student frosh AND transfer applicants hasn’t changed much from 2012-2014 (roughly 93k, 99k, 99k and roughly 29k, 29k, 29k respectively). However, international frosh and transfer applicants have increased (19k, 21k, 26k and 20k, 22k, 27k respectively). Out-of-state frosh has also increased (19k, 21k, 26k), but transfer applicants have remained relatively steady (1k, ~900, ~900). So unless there’s a drastic increase in the number of applicants, the creation of a new UC is very unlikely… it took 40-years before Merced was added to the UC system. </p>
<p>Additionally, should the number of applicants reach critical-mass for arguments to create another UC campus, the Cal-State system exists for the influx of students. The Cal-State system would also have to experience the same dilemma, or there must be enough political-will to justify a new UC campus instead of utilizing the Cal-State schools. Just because students do not want to attend a Cal-State is not grounds for the creation of another UC.</p>