<p>Lets think economics here shall we? If one has a much higher chance of getting in elsewhere that will provide him with just slightly reduced happiness, doesn’t it make sense to go for that instead?</p>
<p>Just wondering, what is the specific utility curve we’re working on here?
For the OP, let’s take four possible paths and let’s use arbitrary likelihood percentages.</p>
<p>School, University, Percent Likelihood of Admission, 100 Point Scale of Happiness
- Wharton, UPenn, 15%, 85
- College, UPenn, 20%, 75
- College, Drexel, 90%, 50
- Nursing, UPenn, 50%, 10</p>
<p>With these arbitrary numbers, we can figure out some things. The OP would be happiest at Wharton, most likely to get into Drexel and least happy at Penn Nursing. Here, the likelihood of getting into Nursing is greater than College or Wharton, but happiness is FAR decreased, so that’s probably not a good idea. Drexel is a clear safety and included only because it has a high acceptance rate (i.e. it has nothing to do with anything other than that… I almost went to good ol’ Drexel!).</p>
<p>With this randomness, there’s really not much of a difference in happiness between the College and Wharton, so the OP could apply to either and still be happy. But what if we change those top two so that it is as follows:</p>
<ol>
<li>Wharton, UPenn, 15%, 95</li>
<li>College, UPenn, 25%, 50</li>
<li>College, Drexel, 90%, 40</li>
</ol>
<p>Then, even though the College gives him a noticeable admissions advantage, he is significantly less likely to be happy at the College, so he would be better off applying to Drexel, which gives a much easier chance of acceptance and only a slightly lower happiness value.</p>
<p>If you’re thinking economics and happiness, you gotta think utility! So since nobody here knows what the OP is actually thinking, this might be a case where the OP needs to just figure it out and pick a place to apply to!</p>