What are my chances (3.8 unweighted GPA, 1580 SATs)

I’m a high school junior at a public school in New Jersey which has a history of sending kids to ivy leagues.
I had a 3.8 unweighted GPA freshman year, a 3.75 unweighted GPA sophomore year, and I have a 3.8 unweighted this year.

Here are my current classes and my grades in them (my school has 93-100 as an A, we don’t use pluses or minuses)
AP Computer Science A - 96
AP US History - 90
AP Calculus AB - 93
Honors English 11 - 95
Honors Physics - 93
Honors Spanish 4 - 97

Next years classes (only cores):
AP Composition & Language
AP Environmental Science
AP Spanish
AP US Government
Multi-variable Calculus

Biggest Extra-Curricular Stuff:
Winner in my district for the Congressional App Challenge (nationwide app-creating contest sponsored by Congress)
Student Representative to the Board of Education
Student Member in Board’s Cultural Competency Committee
Student Council Delegate
Co-founder of school’s Computer Science Club
Officer in Peer Bias Leaders (student group which leads efforts to promote tolerance)
Attendee of RYLA Conference (decently renowned leadership conference on the East Coast)
Peer Leaders (mostly leading activities with underclassmen)
National Honor Society & National Spanish Honor Society
Model UN member (1x Best Delegate winner, 3x Honorable Mention winner)
South Jersey Academic Challenge champions 2019 (Academic trivia/quiz bowl type thing)
Presenter at CASE Conference (Presented diversity programs with school’s administrators)
A bunch of music groups (Voice Male - male a capella group, Co Ed - more exclusive coed a capella group, school choirs)

What are my chances for:
Dartmouth
Cornell
UC Berkeley
UCLA
University of South California
Duke

I just was rejected from Dartmouth’s visitation program so I’m beginning to doubt my chances for Ivies, but I see where I need to improve and I feel that the recommendations will be able to clarify many of my extra curriculars because what they are and their significance aren’t obvious.

Also, how important would you guys say AP and SAT Subject Test scores are? I just did them but I don’t know how much they’ll matter.

Thank you whoever responds!

Test scores?
It’s very possible to get rejected from a visit program and still get in to the college.

I got a 1580 on my sats (790 math, 790 english), and a 1400 on my psats. Those are the only tests whose results I have so far. For the writing section of the SAT, I got a 6 on all 3 categories (if it matters)

I took the AP tests for my AP classes this year and felt good on them, I’m predicting I get a 5 in comp sci and calc and a 4 in us history

For the subject tests, i took math 2 and felt ok on it (650-700 at least) and us history and felt great (760+)

Again, I don’t have the scores yet so who knows

Can you afford UCs given that you’re OOS and the cost will be 65,000 a year?

How can you go from Calc AB to Multivariable? You are essentially skipping the BC part.

Have you taken either Biology or Chemistry yet? Most of the schools on your list will want you to finish all 3 lab sciences (Biology, Chemistry, Physics) with preferably 1 of them at an AP level.

APES may not have the rigor desired and if your school offers any of the other AP science classes and you haven’t taken them, then your schedule may not have the rigor compared to your peers.

I agree that you should skip AP Environmental science and take either biology or chemistry. Environmental science does NOT count as a science class for most of the schools on your list.
Hard to say what your chances are, but if you can apply binding ED to Cornell or Duke, if you know
your first choice, it would help you get in.
Also are you applying to Arts and Sciences? Do you have a major in mind?

UCLA seems to be easier for admission than Berkeley for Colorado students. For NJ, I don’t know. However, once they get to UCLA, often students become depressed by the rigorous quarter calendar there. Its hard to take more than three classes at a time at UCLA, due to the rapid pacing of the exams in a ten week quarter. Its a very big school, very difficult in quite a few majors, and maybe not that supportive. (Berkeley offers a semester calendar but not much easier )

If you want a big flagship school like UCLA, you may want to look closer to home at-- U of Maryland, U of North Carolina and U of Virginia are all strong for Arts and Sciences and much closer to New Jersey.

Subject exam scores are required by some east and west coast schools, but submit them to all your schools as they can help with merit at some schools, although there are not a lot of merit deals in your initial list. Case Western Reserve U will use the subject exam scores to award merit, for instance, along with all the other stats. So schools that do not REQUIRE subject exams, often look at them anyway.

If you want to study CS ,also look at GaTech, Maryland, and maybe CMU or Penn, maybe instead of the west coast schools. I would take biology, as your senior science subject, as bioinformatics is a huge exploding field. AP Environmental science is less rigorous than AP Chemistry or AB Biology, the AP. Its a bad idea to sign on for an easy science class in 12th grade, if there is a harder science class available.

Or Rutgers.

@muffinner As for your top school chances, here is the generic FAQ: http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/what-my-chances/1525399-if-you-are-asking-for-your-chances-to-ivies-and-other-top-schools.html
(i.e., your chances are low, because everyone’s chances are low.)

For CS schools, here are some others to consider: https://www.ivyachievement.com/computer-science-rankings/

Lastly, if you are considering an ED application and you do have a clear favorite, even if it’s a reach, then ED apply to that school. Don’t make the mistake of trying to calculate “best odds for best school”. The problem is that if you are accepted ED and it was not to your top choice, you will forever wonder “what if?”.

@Hamurtle yeah, now that I’ve been going through all of these, I might not consider the UCs given their cost and low OOS acceptance rate. I’m taking Calc 2 over the summer to join some of my friends who are taking Multivar. I’ve taken Honors chem and biology, and while I agree AP Environmental isn’t very rigorous, I’m not strong in science classes and I feel I would struggle in AP Physics or Chem

@Coloradomama Thanks for the suggestions of schools, I’m looking more and more at the types of schools that you’re suggesting and I’ll be sure to take them into consideration.

I’m majoring in Computer Science if that matters

I might consider taking a different AP science based on all of your feedback, I’ll talk to my counselor

If AP Physics is offered, take that, as it’s a pretty important class for any flavor of Engineering.

You’re “not strong in science classes…would struggle” at the AP level, but want a CS major? AP physics and one other AP level lab sci will be basic expectations for any of the colleges you listed. APES is no substitute, is considered less rigorous- and not a lab science. The competition is fierce. Not just in general, but also from NJ. Kids will have more rigor.

Your AP AB and H physics grades (important for stem) are borderline A grades. Adcoms look at the transcript, see the course choices and grades.

We can’t get far with only the jr-sr courses listed. It doesn’t show us the full range of classes. But also, if you have less than 4.0 every year, it suggests B grades in there. It will matter what courses, how related to your stem major.

Other than the CS club, do you have math-sci activities? Any community service separate from NHS?

You need to get an idea what each of those colleges actually looks for. And the competition.