As everyone is saying, what you told us so far looks like it should be competitive for admissions anywhere. The issue for all candidates like you is the most selective “holistic” colleges will likely make their final cuts based on perceptions of subjective/“soft” factors like fit and personal character, and it is extremely difficult to predict how that will work out in any given case.
But we know that recommendations and essays are typically very important inputs into such factors. Because we are looking at subjective factors, it remains difficult to say what would count as the sort of “very good” recommendations/essays they are going to be looking for. But this is enough information to know that at this point, likely your best “value-added” areas in which to spend your remaining time and energy for college admissions purposes is going to be in making sure you get the best possible recommendations and writing essays that are both personal and compelling (and I think many people get tripped up trying to do one or the other and fail to do both).
The only other thing I would note is when talking about both activities and desirable personal characteristics, many official admissions statements and informal statements by admissions officers (in the highly-selective “holistic” admissions world) have strong themes of “leadership”. I tend to think this is another thing that gets underplayed in certain circles–people devote a lot of time and energy to individual activities and awards, but these “holistic” colleges place a high value on the sorts of people who not only participate in group activities, but are the sorts of people who end up emerging as leaders among their peers.
As usual, if you are just trying to check boxes, there is a good chance admissions officers will see through that. And it is getting pretty late in the process, and if that simply isn’t you, that won’t necessarily be a deal-breaker. But still, if you can find some opportunities to take on new leadership roles (which can be formal titles but also informal roles), and/or identify and highlight existing leadership roles (and again, it doesn’t have to involve a formal title, just cases where you stepped up to lead a group), that might be helpful.
Finally, as others are also suggesting, I’d really try to avoid the mindset that you should start at the top of a US News-type ranking list and assume the higher you can end up on that list, the better. Ideally you will instead approach this in a more bottom-up way.
What sort of college experience would really excite you? Be both challenging (in a good way) but also fun? What sort of location, both regional and in terms of urban/suburban/rural, would you prefer? If relevant, which colleges might offer that sort of experience/setting in an affordable way?
Forgetting about US News-style rankings for the moment, hopefully the intersection of those different, very personal, circles will include a lot of colleges.
Indeed, hopefully too many! Sadly you can only attend one of these very exciting colleges, but hopefully there are many potentially affordable and exciting places you COULD choose.
And hopefully, in fact, the challenge is now narrowing it down. But again, try not to let US News-style rankings do the initial narrowing. Take some tours, in-person or virtual as works for you. Refine, or perhaps even change, your criteria. Be open to simply falling in love with some colleges on your search list! Noting at this point, it is OK to have multiple crushes.
OK, now you can finally decide where to apply. And now, finally, you should take into account selectivity. But not because you should necessarily prefer the more selective school! Rather, just make sure you don’t choose only the most selective schools. But also feel free to select some very selective schools–if you want! Or maybe you will have fallen in love with a college or two that is not among your most selective. You are not crazy if you do.
As many experienced professionals will tell you, if you follow this sort of bottom-up approach, applicants like you basically can’t lose. You know you will be excited to go anywhere you apply, because they wouldn’t have made your list otherwise. And indeed, maybe you will get into your favorite early, or at least a high favorite early, and it will cut your list way down, or to zero, early. Which will be a big relief.
If you do it in a top-down, rankings-driven way instead–that is a recipe for being one of those kids who is still stressed out deep into senior year, possibly looking online for rumors about whether a waitlist is closed or not, and so on. I am not saying all those kids have done something wrong, but I think it is a lot better if by that point you are very “meh” on whether you get off the waitlist. Because hopefully you are justifiably really excited about where you are already on track to go.