What are my chances at a good UC?

My top schools are UCLA, UCSB, and UCD – I am applying to all UCs except riverside and Merced

UC GPA: 4.1

ACT Score: 28

Class rank: 79/500

Intended major: Communications

Sophomore year: All A’s (English 2 H, World history H, Geometry, Spanish 1), one B (Chemistry) first semester, All A’s (English 2 H, World history H, Chemistry, Spanish 1) one B (Geometry) second semester.

Junior year:

-AP US History (3) – B first semester, A second semester
-AP Lang (3) --A’s both semesters
-AP Comp Sci Pri (4)–A’s both semesters
-Got all A’s in my regular classes (Algebra 2, Spanish 2, Physics) both semesters except one B in physics 2nd semester

My school only allows students to take AP classes junior and senior year and the max you can take is 3 (including honors classes)

I am currently taking AP Psych and AP Lit

A little about me:
-First generation
-Live in San Francisco
-Low-income
-Muslim
-Moroccan
-Female
-Live with one parent because father died freshman year

ECs:
-Intern at a renowned theatre company where I focus on costume design
-Assistant teacher at a painting studio (4 years)
-Participant in a workforce development program w/California lawyers for the arts
-Librarian assistant (4 years)
-Social media manager for a student-run theatre company
-English tutor
-Did a theatre arts apprenticeship over the summer
-President and creator of mental health awareness club (3 years)
-Co-president and co-creator of women in business club (1 year)

UC’s do not use race/gender in their admission decisions. Being low income/first generation will however help.

Your GPA is near target for UCSB and UCD, but below average for UCLA. Your ACT score is below the 25th percentile for UCLA but within range for UCSB and UCD albeit on the lower end.

Your EC’s are focused and diverse.

Consider UCLA a Reach and communications is highly impacted and not a direct admit.

UCSB and UCD would high Match 50/50. Hopefully you have several safety and solid Match schools on your list besides these 3 schools.

2018 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCB: 10%
UCLA: 9%
UCSD: 34%
UCSB: 38%
UCD: 41%
UCI: 38%
UCSC: 70%
UCR: 84%
UCM: 95%

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCB: 4.23 (4.15-4.30)
UCLA: 4.25 (4.18-4.32)
UCSD: 4.16 (4.03-4.28)
UCSB: 4.16 (4.04-4.28)
UCI: 4.13 (4.00-4.25)
UCD: 4.13 (4.00-4.26)
UCSC: 3.96 (3.76-4.16)
UCR: 3.90 (3.69-4.11)
UCM: 3.73 (3.45-4.00)

25th - 75th percentiles for ACT composite + language arts
UCB: 28-35
UCLA: 29-35
UCSD: 26-34
UCSB: 26-34
UCD: 24-33
UCI: 24-34
UCSC: 24-32
UCR: 21-30
UCM: 18-26

Best of luck.

Is the UC GPA a weighted capped or weighted uncapped? What is your unweighted GPA?

Thanks so much! That was very helpful.

My unweighted GPA is 3.83

Are you also applying to any private universities with generous need-based financial aid? It strikes me that Syracuse U. in Upstate NY is particularly strong in your areas of interest - their Newhouse School of Communications has a great reputation; and the School of Visual & Performing Arts has degree track (BFA, BA, or minor) in the Theater department specifically in costume design (in addition to their fashion design program outside of Theater). You might be able to combine your multiple interests there; and while they don’t meet full need for all students, they do for a majority of aid recipients. Your stats are solidly in range, and a portfolio of your costume design work could impress them further. Maybe it’s farther from home than you’d want to go, but it might be worth running the Net Price Calculator to see how the costs would be likely to compare to a UC.

In the CSU system, CSU Fullerton has a School of Communications with multiple degree tracks, and also a very active theater program.

One more possibility you may not have considered - Berea College in KY serves low-income students exclusively; all students attend tuition-free. It is very well regarded and admissions are competitive, but you would be a strong candidate. Berea has a communications major (as well as a theater major and minor) and offers phenomenal alumni networking and internship/job placement. Its mission statement is based on “Christian values” but it has an active Muslim Students Association. Students graduate from Berea with little-to-no debt and terrific career opportunities.

Just running a few alternatives up the proverbial flagpole; I think you’ll end up with at least a few good UC options but it could be good to compare some other options to that financial baseline.