What are my chances at Emory RD?

Chance Me / Match Me!
21

I will still disagree about Lehigh, Case, and Villanova - they are low reaches. @zaydhaydar is a bit above average for admitted students for all, but admission rates are around 30% for all of these.

Overall when an applicant is in the mid range for a school, and the admissions rate are lower than about 30%, I generally put it at a low reach (around 40% is a high match).

@zaydhaydar is also a bit above average for BU, but not top 25%. Acceptance rates to BU are lower than 20% now, so we’re talking about a reach. Not an especially high one, but still a reach.

Temple and Pitt are definitely safeties (if they are affordable), and I agree that UMD is a good target.

I think that, if @zaydhaydar submits good applications to Lehigh, Case, and Villanova, that there is a better than even chance that they will be accepted to at least one, but there is also a solid chance that they will not be accepted to any.

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Acceptance rates don’t tell the whole story, of course. Just Right+ and Dream- are splitting hairs… so you really don’t disagree much at all (besides with Villanova) and I could be swayed to add a +). Nice job with your list.

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Dream - Average accepted applicant, stronger the candidate
Just Right - Average accepted applicant, looks like the candidate
No Problem - Average accepted applicant, not as strong as the candidate

Why lowball @MWolf, even a hair, when you can get it right?

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I don’t think that I am lowballing. Admissions to colleges which have increasing numbers of applicants is getting more difficult, and admission rates can only be expected to drop next season. So comparing an applicant to the class of 2020 or of 2021 will overestimate the proportion of applicants who fit most profiles who are accepted, and will underestimate the average profile of admitted students.

Also, the average admitted students are admitted at rates which are only somewhat higher than the average admission rates. So, for a colleges with a 10% admission rate and median SATs of 1500, only about 15% or so of the students with SATs around 1500 were accepted.

An admission rate of 15% or so means that the colleges is a reach, even though, profile-wise, it’s a match.

So when I talk about matches and reaches, I’m not talking about how closely an applicant matches accepted applicants, but what proportion of applicants like them are accepted.

So match => about 50% or so of applicants with similar profiles are accepted
Reach => 25% or fewer of applicants with similar profiles are accepted
Safety => more than 90% of applicants with similar profiles are accepted.

Some people have:
Likely => more than 80% (or so) of similar applicants are accepted
Sure thing/safety => 100% ( or very close to that) of similar applicants are accepted.

Then there are “high matches”, “low reaches”. etc.

When you designate a college as “just right” it implies that the chances are in the 50:50 range, but, for colleges like BU, the large majority of applicants who match the mid 50% of accepted students are rejected.

For applicants who are in the top 25% of a college with a 50% acceptance rate, that college is a safety. For applicants who are in the mid 50%, it is a match, while for students in the bottom 25%, it is a reach.

However, when you look at a colleges with a 25% acceptance rate, it is a reach for applicants in the mid 50%, and a match for applicants in the top 25%. At colleges like that, if your stats are in the bottom 25%, you usually need to have a real hook to be accepted.

Of course, these are rough estimates, and it is a continuum, not a “step function” with clear cutoffs.

PS. Auto admits are a different story.

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No offense meant. I think putting yourself out there to help kids is generally positive.

For BU-level schools and other “just rights” (50/50 is dead-on). Most critical to BU would be proper analysis of the academics and this student (assuming the 3.82 and other shared info is correct), the applicant would be slightly above average for BU. In particular, if you had the official transcript in front of you, you would see a page full of A’s with very few A-'s or B’s (probably 3 A-'s and 2 high B’s). Given the 1420 is also in the 50/50 range. “Just right” is the proper categorization - or match if you prefer. If the goal is to be cautious and offer a pleasant surprise when the student is admitted - call it a reach, but that is a slight low-ball IMO.

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No worries - I wasn’t offended. We just disagree, and that’s OK. I also think that you are doing good work. It actually isn’t a bad idea for applicants to get optimistic and pessimistic predications.

I also think that it is really difficult to chance UW GPAs in the 3.81-3.88 or so range. So I tend to underestimate, since for applicants in this range, other factors can often make more of a difference than for other GPA ranges (higher and lower). Since those factors are much difficult to measure, I tend to underestimate chances for applicants with GPAs in this range.

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