What are my chances at top LAC's/Davidson?

<p>I'm applying ED 1 to Davidson College
::::Academics:::
4.5 weighted GPA;
Commended Scholar on PSAT;
1480 SAT;
8 AP courses total; 5 AP English, 3 AP Chemisty, 5 US History
2nd decile in extremely competitive school private, catholic, all-girls school
4 B's total in high school carrer (all in spanish)
most difficult course load offered except in language;
My school shows A+ A- and A etc on school grade report
::::::EC's:::::
President of environmental and technology clubs;
4yrs of sailing and youth group;
teach sailing and taekwondo several years;
200+ service hours;
Young Scholars Program last summer (Prestigious program in florida, only accepts 40 ppl, full scholarship, take classes and do science research);
black belt; random community service activities and church activities
Nominated for Belk Scholarship
if they call to find out my 1st quarter senior year grades they will see 3 B's;
What are my chances of getting in, i've already done an overnight, visited, and had 2 meetings with the admissions couselor for my state. The counselor for my region also has an established tie with my school, but he acted rather dissapointed when he learned i was in the second decile and kept encouraging me to apply ED saying that they definately accept people ED whom they would not accept if they applied regular.
My essay is well written and meaningful but nothing spectacular.</p>