Nick – seems like the sweet spot for you is to go the full pay/ED route at a top 40 private that has computer science.
Top 20 (NW, Vandy) would be aggressive, but you could try it and go ED2 someplace as a plan B if you miss in ED1. FYI, ED is brand new this year at UVA. You could give that a shot, although it is hard to know how that is going to work at UVA given this is the trial run for ED.
Top 40 should be pretty matchy. Tulane, which takes tons of kids from CT, comes to mind. Or maybe a place like BC, Bucknell, Lehigh, Nova or Santa Clara.
UC OOS admissions are a unique animal, so you should try to get feedback from one of the UC-specific mavens on those schools.