“With all that being said, do you think going that top 20 route (Vandy, NW, etc) ED1 then if I don’t get in go ED2 somewhere else would be logical?”
Sure it is logical. But there’s some downside too. Since at many schools the admissions boost you get for an ED2 application is not as big as the boost you get from an ED1 application. So there’s a risk if you overthink/over-game this exercise.
Best thing for ED is to hone in on one school that is a really good fit and which (giving effect to the ED boost) is a pretty good chance of admission. Since you can only shoot one ED1 silver bullet, the plan doesn’t work nearly so well if you miss with that one shot.
I’d agree that the sports angle to a fancy D3 is another potential sweet spot. But playing that “hook” is a completely different, lengthy process.