What are my chances at Vanderbilt?

I know I’m very, very likely to receive a flat out rejection with little consideration, but I just wanted to hear other people’s thoughts. I applied RD, not ED, for various reasons. I haven’t actually visited Vandy either, as I live far away and was only planning to visit if I actually get in.

GPA (weighted): 4.479
GPA (unweighted): I don’t believe my school reports an UW GPA… my grades are a mix of As and Bs
SAT (superscore): 1440 (730 R/W, 710 M)
I’ve taken 10 total AP classes throughout high school (AP Euro, AP US History, AP Computer Science Principles, AP Biology, AP Physics C, AP Calc BC, AP Stats, AP Chemistry, AP English Language and Comp, AP French - UConn Credited Course)
Ethnicity: Hispanic
Extracurriculars:

  • Member of National Honors Society (11th and 12th grade)
  • Member of French National Honor Society (12th grade)
  • Total community service work: 25 hours through NHS, 72 hours at a local convalescent home, additional 52 hours through Leo’s Club
  • Varsity cross country runner (9th - 12th grade), All-State athlete, All-Conference athlete, All-academic team, Class MM State Champs (2016), State runner-ups 9th and 11th grade
  • Varsity outdoor track runner - All-Conference, All-academic, Most Improved athlete (9th and 10th grade)
  • Varsity indoor track runner - All-academic team (all 4 years)
  • Summer job inputting data entry and lane numbers at track meets at a local high school
  • Operation Smile Club (10th and 11th grade)
    -Recreational basketball player (11th and 12th grade)

Letters of Recc: I didn’t get to read them, but I’m going to assume they’re a solid 8.5/10
Essay: I wrote it about overcoming my struggle with the acne I’ve had ever since I was 8, definitely does not sound like a pity story, probably one of the best things I’ve ever written
Supplement (extracurricular): I wrote it about cross country because running is simply a huge part of my life and I just wanted to give an honest reflection of myself by talking about the extracurricular that means the most to me. I talked about how my team didn’t do so well my freshman year, so I made the bold move to suggest my team get together to bond before races, and from that year on, my team has worked together and grown much closer. We’ve won a state championship and evidently improved through working as a team, something my coach and teammates accredit to the bonding get-togethers I invented. This might sound kind of lame to have talked about, but trust me, I think it actually came out a lot better than it might seem.

Please don’t shoot me down for having applied or anything, I obviously consider Vandy to be a reach school and don’t have my heart set on it. I just wanted to hear other’s opinions and know that no one can actually tell me whether I’ll get in or not. Just curious.

Yes it’s a reach, as it is for everyone! Good luck - I wouldn’t give up hope - you have a lot going for you and sound like a competitive candidate.

Your SAT is on the low side, but you are URM, which helps a lot.