What are my chances? Class of 2023 (Likely ED)

Hey guys! I just visited Northwestern today and loved it, but after reading about how difficult it is to get in I just wanted to see what you all thought about my prospects. I know a lot of this is super subjective because you can’t take into account my essays and recommendations, but I’ll take whatever estimates I can get. I’ll be a high school senior this upcoming school year.

ACT: 35 composite (36 science, 36 english, 36 reading, 32 math) with a 10 on the essay.

GPA: My school uses a 4.3 scale where I have a 5.178 weighted GPA, but because that isn’t standardized in any way I tried to do the math on my own to calculate it on a 4.0 scale. For the weighted GPA I didn’t take into account the credit for classes and gave honors classes a 0.5 boost and AP/IB classes a 1.0 boost. This gave me an unweighted GPA of around 3.89 and a weighted GPA of around 4.24.

Class Rank: 21 out of around 300 students (top 7%)

AP Testing: 5 on AP History and AP English Lang. & Comp. 4 on AP Physics exam.

Other academic info: IB Diploma Candidate. HL in Physics, English, and History. SL in Spanish, Math, and Business Management. I took all of my core classes (History, English, Math, and Science) at the honors level Freshman year, and did the same Sophomore year (but bumped History up to an AP). Junior year I took all of these classes at the IB/AP level, while also taking Spanish as an honors class (in prior years it was not offered at this level).

Extracurriculars (Kind of ordered greatest to least but not exact): Boy scout currently working towards Eagle Scout. By the time I apply, I should have completed my Eagle Project (friends who have completed the project have logged over 150 hours of community service). This is on top of my active membership in my troop. Varsity athlete on my high school outdoor track team (pole vaulting), earning a letter my sophomore and junior year (I’m likely not good enough to participate in sports at a D1 school like Northwestern). Earned a JV letter freshman year. This summer I will attend the Iowa Young Writer’s Studio for Creative Writing, a highly selective creative writing program out of the University of Iowa. This summer, I went on a mission trip to Kentucky to build and repair homes for the working poor (another 50ish service hours). I also run for my high school cross country team, and have earned a JV letter for the past 3 years (I hope to earn a varsity letter this fall). I have held a summer job serving food at a local pool for the past three summers. For two of these years I also held a job as a summer camp counselor. For the past four years I have been an active member in youth ministry through my church. I participated in indoor track and field for my high school my Freshman year, earning a JV letter.

My letters of recommendation will be from an English teacher that I have had for the past 2 years (and who I am close with and has written other recommendations for me in the past) and my History teacher (who I will have for the second time next year). I don’t know my guidance counselor super well, but gave her a lot of information about me through my brag sheet that should allow her to write a good letter reflective of who I am.

I will likely ED to Northwestern this fall and am planning on applying to the School of Communications (with a prospective major in Film/Radio/TV). My essay discusses my passion for pop culture and why it is important to me, so I think applying to this school and major will fit with the rest of my application. I am generally a strong writer and really do love Northwestern, so I believe I should be able to write a genuine “Why NU” supplement.

So, what do you guys think?

P.S. Sorry that I wrote so much I have a tendency to be really wordy. I tried to cut it down but it didn’t seem to do much.

Also, because it matters

Ethnicity: White
Gender: Male
No special circumstances or any hooks that work in my favor (from a privileged town in NJ)