What are my chances for acceptance into an Econ PhD program, how could I improve them? (Sophmore)

I go to West Texas A&M University and am a Sophmore

I am Economics Major, and a Math/Music Minor (I started my first semester as a music major then changed, so I had enough credits to where finishing the minor wouldn’t take much work)

My In-Major GPA is a 4.0, my Cumulative is a 3.97 (My 1 B is in an Introduction to Music Therapy class from when I was a music major my first semester of my freshman year). Bar me screwing up on my Calculus or Labor Econ final, this shouldn’t change at the end of the semester (except maybe an increase in the cumulative gpa).

By the time I graduate I should have completed these math classes: Math Business + Economics 1 and 2, Calculus 1 - 3, Introduction to Proofs, Math Stats, Linear Algebra, Advanced Calculus, Diff Equations 1 + 2, and Modern Algebra

I am in the Honors Program at the University. I am currently working on research with my adviser to submit to different student research conferences. I will also complete a Capstone project my senior year for the honors program requirements.

I also work as an SI Leader for the University, which in short means I have group tutor/study sessions for Principles of Macroeconomics students and help them with the class.

For extra-curriculars unrelated to Econ or Math, I am in the Chorale and I am the Treasurer for a professional music fraternity.

I am trying to get a good idea of what prospects/chances for grad school would be at top-ranked university (such as MIT or Harvard), a high ranked university (such as Caltech, UT-Austin, or Texas A&M), and other mid-high ranked universities. I am currently trying to pick around 5-8 to apply to in a little less than 2 years, and figure out what I would need to do to maximize my chances at getting accepted and receiving a fellowship.

Thank you for any feedback, in advance.

If you’re a sophomore (so you’ve been in school for just 3 semesters) it’s far too early to assess your “chances”. Nonetheless, it does appear that you’re on the right track.

Don’t worry about picking specific programs now. Wait at least a year. Really, you can begin compiling programs in earnest during the spring semester of your junior year, or maybe the summer between junior and senior years.

Anyway, here’s what you can do to stay on the right track:

-Add real analysis to the list of math classes you intend to take before graduation. Also, you may want to take a class on probability if that math stats is a one-semester course that only focuses on statistics.
-You say you are doing research with your advisor. Is that an ongoing relationship, or a one-off project for conferences? If it’s the latter, I’d say develop an ongoing relationship where you assist in the research of an economics professor in your department - preferably one that’s doing research that’s interesting to you. You want a good solid 2 years of research experience.
-Look into completing one or two summer research programs for undergraduates. The NSF sponsors several REU programs in the social and behavioral sciences: https://www.nsf.gov/crssprgm/reu/list_result.jsp?unitid=5054. But there are many other universities that do - conduct a search on “economics summer undergraduate research programs” or something like that.
-Make sure that you are also cultivating relationships with 2-3 other professors who can write you recommendations. Try to be intentional about taking two classes with the same professor, for example, and doing well in those classes.

Generally fellowship support comes automatically with an offer of admission to a PhD program, especially at the top programs you are eyeing. Treat any offer of admission without full funding the same as you would a rejection. With that said, I wouldn’t worry about that too much - economics is a pretty well-funded area.

I believe Real Analysis is included in the Advanced Calculus class at my school. I need to check if probability is offered. The research right now is one project, but it’s an annual thing, so I figured I would work on a project each year. I meet with my adviser once a week to work on it. Doing an REU is a good idea.

My main worry is the fact that my university isn’t very well-known, and I’m worried that’ll keep me from being able to get accepted into a top ranked grad school (which is why I’ve been looking into it very early, since I know that I want to go). I could possibly transfer to a school like UT-Austin for my last two years, but I am worried that the trade-off of the connections I’ve already made at my university for a better known university wouldn’t be worth it.

Getting a good GRE score matters for econ. So many applicants have strong quant scores.

School of origin doesn’t really matter for grad school, it’s all about your individual accomplishments. I’m currently a PhD student at what you consider a top ranked grad school and there are many students that come from schools that are not very well known. Not everyone did their undergrad/MS at HYPSM, or any of the other Ivy Leagues lol

Just focus on getting good grades and research experience, and you’ll do great when the time comes.