What are my chances for MIT, Stanford, Caltech, and Berkeley EECS and how can I improve them?

Chance Me / Match Me!
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@pastelrain did this one bad semester really destroy me? I mean without it, my application would be perfect. Will my ec’s, test scores, and beat straight A’s every other semester make up? Can I at least get into berkeley, ucla, or ucsd for engineering? My friends who had great stats but no ec’s got into top uc’s for engineering. Will my ec’s and embodiment of the culture of those top schools give me a solid chance? I want to say Irvine and ucsb are my safeties since they have a 40% acceptance rate and my stats are above average. However, with improvement next semester, will the first semester be ignored. People fall down and get back up in life. I just want to forget this semester ever happened and hope it has no affect moving forward.

@1NJParent the problem isn’t the content, but rather the teacher and how I failed lab reports and the notebook check. I took a practice sat 2 physics and scored an 800. I also took a practice f=ma usapho exam and scored enough to get me to semifinals. I’ve also been looking at mit lectures for my personal projects and have had no problem with the content. My recs will be glowing and I know they place great emphasis on that. Will this one semester affect me?

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I didn’t read the entire thread, Presitigious Nerd. In that case, you’ll need to explain the situation somehow in your application. Caltech/MIT are full of applicants with 800 Physics SAT2 score, so that won’t help. Physics Olympiad might.

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Also, top 13-15% is as of this semester. She estimated top 7-8% by the end of junior year and top 5-6% by the end of first semester of senior year. I’m not sure class rank matters as it’s not reported, but the 90% figure is still pretty big.

Also, is it true that grades are only check to see if you can do the work and graduate in 4 years? I think 50-60% of people pass that test. Will they look at my grades at all after I make it past the first round? I saw lots of this on the MIT admissions blogs, which truly stress the holistic process. I’m relying on the holistic process and hope it will save me. I actually think 3.78 is quite good, but it’s that C.

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No one can truly estimate where you will land in rank. Many are in a similar situation and are also trying to pull up their grades. It was surprising how much shifting of rank occurred at graduation with my first even in one semester. I read you wanted to add CC classes to your activities. If you were my child I would not encourage this addition. I would focus on improving the classes you are presently taking. I read that you said you were studying 2 hours a night. Maybe it is not enough. Some of these higher level classes really do rely on you memorizing formulas. Small changes can produce huge results. The posters on here taught our family what a reach, match, and safety were. They really know what they are talking about so listen to their advice. Top 25 schools no matter stats really are a reach for ALL. I am glad we listened while we had time to add one or two more. You don’t want to over reach and end up without a school. As far as bad teachers, everyone will have one at some point. As my oldest learned, figure out what they really want and follow it to a T. Don’t go through school trying to impress a AO. You need to make yourself happy first and follow the things that make your heart sing. You don’t want to be the kid who spoke at my DS graduation who talked about doing everything for college and realizing all to late that she missed the best things about high school. College is not the end but the beginning. I know it is hard to hear and cliché as I have said it many times in our own home. It just might not be the right year for what ever the student has to offer even if you have done everything “right”.

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So, is admission to the top 25 schools truly random? The stressful thing is that they are a huge crapshoot and I can’t say whether I’ll get in. Is there a way to mathematically increase your chances? I’m not sure if they have a points system where the top x people get admission.

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I got 16/25 on my practice physics olympiad. I think it made the cut last year and am praying it also does this year. Only 400 people qualify each year, wayyyy less than the 1700 for ISEF.

Grades are subjective but olympiads are objective. I just don’t want to sound like I’m making excuses and blaming this on the teacher and ruin my credibility. I honestly feel like it was his goal to give me a c all along and he won. I lost 3 points for the exact same mistake on an exam that others only lost 2 points for and his “solution” to making this fair was to take 1 more point away from everyone else. And 40 out of 100 points on the notebook check was the quality of your notes and he gave me 10/40 when my notes were neat and comprehensive because he claimed they were “disorganized.”

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Also, might it be a wise idea to drop APUSH in favor of honors USH? I am very lucky to have squeaked out a 79.6 in this class, but I find the tests difficult and do not really have the time to study for them. I actually got a d+ on my progress report due to some personal problems and a bit of laziness. But from what everyone says, HUSH is an order of magnitude easier and an a in there is not hard at all plus you get the weighted credit. Would it look bad to drop down a level?

Also, the extra math classes are not a big deal. I can pull off easy A’s in these and want to seek as much math knowledge as possible so I can start real analysis next year. I’ll probably also be ahead of many other applicants in math. But what is tough is getting an A in a history or language class.

I’ll admit that I’m definitely not in the top 1-2% of my class, but I believe I am ranked #1 in something, extracurricualrs. Many seniors this year have very good extracurriculars and I’d probably be among the top 5-15 of them in that respect, but my class is a joke. Many of the people I know with the 4.7 gpa’s have no extracurriculars except csf (California scholarship federation, very common), which I dropped out of since it was a negligible use of my time and volunteering at the library. I think I’m the only one doing scientific research with a professor and interning for startups and I’m definitely the only one doing science fair. Also, only about 10-20 people in my class are leaders in a club and I’m a leader in 4. So will I be stronger or weaker than these people applying to the same schools from my school with stronger grades but much weaker ec’s? I’ll also add that I live in a very affluent area and there’s without a doubt people with legacies and whose parents can buy them in, but many of them are average c students. I’m just a hardworking hopeful.

I know everyone says these schools are reached, but I’m applying to around 20 of them. don’t worry, I do have safeties. I’m not really interested in harvard or Yale as I’m not that interested in liberal arts. I’d say my top reachy reaches are MIT, Caltech, Princeton, and Stanford. Then I think Cornell, Upenn, Columbia, Brown, Berkeley EECS, UCLA CSE, and CMU are high matches to low reaches as everyone says they’re much easier to get into than the aforementioned ones. Umich and Gatech also seem like very viable public options with reasonable acceptance rates (~30%) but I’d rather go to a uc because oos tuition isn’t worth it unless it’s a top private. UCSD is like 2 miles away from me, cheap, world-renowned, and has very good education. Also, I know that they allow you to choose a second major when applying to impacted ones. I know transferring is hard, but I know people who’ve done it. I think I can easily get into ucsd with its 35% acceptance rate. I calculated that I have a 35% chance of getting rejected from all my high matches to high reaches by multiplying all the rejection rates, which doesn’t seem too bad. 65% is still a big majority. If I apply to 20 reaches, should I for sure at least get into one of them? I know people on this forum have suggested applying to a broad range of schools, are there any specific ones you think I should apply to?

I’ll add in as well that I have another reasonable accomplishment that I found out about on dec 30, a 36 on my second act (34 English, 36 math, 36 reading, 36 science).

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Congrats on the ACT score.

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I would suggest that the OP read some Robert Burns and Sun Tzu. O wad some power the giftie gie us, to see ourselves as others see us. If you know your enemy and know yourself…

Your posts seem to put the blame on others. You seem to be intelligent enough but when grades don’t go your way, you’re finding excuses.

Maybe change your attitude because there is something about you that rub teachers the wrong way. For example your AP Physics Class has a syllabus that your teacher outlines how he/she wants things done. Kids from your school would have mentioned how the teacher grades. So no excuses about how your notes were organized.

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@Hamurtle I’ll sure check those authors out. I agree that one of my biggest weaknesses is my close-mindedness, which makes me defensive of my own opinions. And I’m definitely working to perfect myself in that area and not rub teachers in the wrong way.

I do have a lot of great things going for me, but then I have one huge deficit that could nullify everything else, a C. I also have a much less severe deficit as well, 3 B’s, but those don’t scare me nearly as much as a C. I fear that my application will receive no more than a glance one they see that C. Look, he presented graduate level mathematics research at a top conference, but he has a C. He did a very well regarded internship with a 10% acceptance rate, but he has a C. He embodies our community values and will bring charisma to our campus, but he has a C. Even if he cured cancer, he still has a C. On the other hand, we have another applicant who accomplished only half as much and has 50 B’s, but he doesn’t have a C. For that reason, he’s a much better candidate and deserves a second reading unlike the first guy with a C. In my competitive area, everyone jokes that c stands for community college, even the kids with a 3.5. And people where UC Riverside jackets as a joke. Honestly, that C makes me think that all my ec’s, test scores, and everything else good will become meaningless. Maybe I’m overly influenced by a competitive environment, but the competition is very real and most applicants don’t have a C. And just going to community college now is better than applying to those schools with a C on my transcript. I’m not sure how true all these myths about getting a C, but I still have something that most applicants could never dream of. Look at this thread here: http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/admissions-hindsight-lessons-learned/1659462-how-much-would-a-c-affect-my-chances-for-the-ivies-stanford-mit-given-5-on-ap-800-on-sat2-p1.html. The OP seems like an amazing applicant but people are commenting on how bad the C is. My stress levels are through the roof and I’m trying to do whatever I can to remediate this. Maybe I could retake the course at the local community college, but the C will still be visible. It’s permanent and will never change. My parents do not have millions of dollars to donate, I’m not a talented athlete, artist, or muscician and it’s too late to become one, and I have the disadvantage of my demographics. I just hope there’s something I can do that will make it a negligible factor. I hope acing those subject tests and AP exams as well as getting an A second semester really will help to mitigate the C. The second semester is off to a great start and I aced the first physics quiz of this semester with 100%.

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I also have something quite exciting to mention. I emailed some MIT professors hoping for an internship and after countless hours hustling, one offered me a position for 7 weeks this summer and he’ll help me remotely thereafter! He’s a tenured faculty and I could get a good rec from him. I’m hoping I can use this to my advantage.

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I used veritas prep as a chances calculator and it gave me a 98% chance for berkeley, a 71% chance for mit, a 68% for Stanford, and a 55% chance at caltech based on the stats I presented in this forum. Even I doubt it’s true knowing how subjective the process is. But I think it’s telling me what percent competitive my numbers are before the subjective factors are weighted in. Gpa isn’t too bad, but I pray that AO’s will overlook the C.

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Is the C honestly as big of a deal as I think it is? Can it be seen as an extreme outlier and ignored? The timing and class I got it in are really awful. I will get an A this semester and I never want to think about that C again. My counselor might be able to put in a few words but I doubt it will make much of a difference. I also have to explain everything on my own for uc’s and am not sure how I’ll go about it. I also do not want to apply ED to any schools.

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If anything telling you a 68% chance for Stanford, 55% chance for Caltech, or 71% chance for MIT, you can ignore that site.

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@billcsho would you say those numbers at least tell me that I’ll make it to the second round of reading and that my stats are competitive enough not to get rejected immediately? Of course I don’t actually have chances that High being such a dime a dozen applicant. Olympiad medalists probably don’t even have chances that high. But if I can make it to the second round of reading, my chances will be about 16% which actually isn’t that bad. But should I have enough to make it there, even with that C? The C is permanent and there’s nothing I can do at this point except do well this semester and the first semester of senior year.

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Those numbers just reveal how ignorant that site is. Just think how would you have 10 times higher chances than an average applicant for those schools. I am not saying you don’t have a chance, but just not the >>50% chance.

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@billcsho My friend at MIT told me that I probably have a .01% chance with a C in a core STEM class junior year and other students there agree with him. Now I definitely don’t think my chances are >>50% but I personally feel I have a solid 20-30% chance based on my objevtive numbers, ec’s, and how I’ll pursue my essays, which is still low but not hopeless. I hope I’m not being too optimistic. My fear is that the C might astronomically lower my chances. However, I feel my ec’s are pretty strong and my other stats are pretty good. Do I still stand a realistic chance even with the C considering my other stats? Also, is there something I can do to replace this grade like retaking the first semester at a local community college?

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Stop obsessing over super-selective schools. You can get an excellent education in EE or CS at many schools, not just super-selective ones.

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@ucbalumnus okay it doesn’t have to be mit, but I’m really aiming for a uc as it’s the most practical option for me in-state and it guarantees a very good education and great opportunities. Would you say berkeley, ucla, and ucsd are still in reach? Can really good essays make up for the C for these schools? Do uc’s even care about individual grades if my gpa is good?

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Apply to all the UCs. You can get a wonderful education at any one of them. Apply to the CSUs as well.