What are my chances of getting in to these summer programs

I’m in 10th grade really good at math and science but my school never offered competitions so that’s really it.
Currently Taking:
AP Calc BC
AP Physics C
AP Bio
AP US History
Honors 10th grade English
Honors Spanish 3
I am applying to SSP Biochemistry (I think i got ~5% chance max). Iowa SSTP (~15%), HCSSIM (~30%), and PROMYS at Boston (~20%)
Are my estimated chances anywhere close to my actual chances and are there any that might be a bit easier to get in and still have decent financial aid available. I also started the school jazz band and the math team but have no other awards or math/science competitions. Assume my essays are average.

Do you have any previous research experience? What did you do last summer?

High grades in rigorous courses and strong test scores are necessary but not sufficient. Pretty much everyone applying will have those. You’re going to be competing against current juniors who did a respected-but-not-quite-as-selective-program last summer. My son is applying to some of the programs you mentioned and one of his LoR’s came from the professor he worked with last summer at COSMOS. I’m not saying that he’s going to be chosen because I’m sure there are plenty of other juniors who have a similar LoR and even better accomplishments like winning a regional or state science fair, etc.

I would advise casting a wider net so that you get in somewhere that will help set you up for the summer between 11th & 12th.

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My son’s progression was Rosetta Institute of Biomedical Science and Pathways to Stem Cell Science → COSMOS → TBD depending on where he gets accepted this summer. He also did Berkeley Math Circle camp the last 2 years but probably won’t this summer since a lot of the programs he’s applying to overlap with BMC. He likes math but LOVES science.

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No previous research experience. Last year I took precal at a local community college to get ahead in classes. What are some things that are easier to get into I could do this year?

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If my son hadn’t gotten accepted to COSMOS last year we were considering UC Santa Barbara’s Summer Research Academy (the RMP is more competitive), UC Santa Cruz SIP, ESAP, and USC had one that he liked. Might’ve been others but those are the ones that come to mind.

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i think you have a very rigorous course load for 10th grade (and assuming you have most/all straight a’s in them) but that won’t get you in anywhere selective. it’s mostly about how you portray your passion for stem through essays and ec’s/research/experience. for any program with less than 15-20% acceptance rate, the essays and your demonstrated passion and character are definitely the make it or break it

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