What are my chances of getting into Stony Brook?

I have looked at the Stony Brook admissions chart and it looks like I am a pretty good candidate, however, I am a bit below average on GPA and was wondering if it is a large factor. I am in my Junior year as of right now, I have a 3.2 (87/100) GPA from my Freshman and Sophomore years of high school. This year I knew I needed to pick it up so I have had a consistent 3.8 (93/100) GPA this year, I don’t know what I got on the SAT yet however it will probably be around 1300 (new SAT out of 1600). Also, in my Junior year I am in almost all advanced classes and one AP in which I’m pretty sure I got a 5 on (AP stats). Next year I am taking 3 AP classes for an overall total of 5 throughout my high school years. I have also heard that taking increasingly harder classes and increasing grades look really good for good colleges, this is by far the case with me. So at the end of Junior year my GPA should be around 3.3 (88) or 3.4 (89). I am probably going to write my essay about how ambitious I am about mathematics and how i dream of becoming one of the best mathematicians to have ever lived (It seems like a bit of a stretch but trust me I can do it). I have also participated in 2 clubs, one of which I am secretary of (Debate club) and I also work at camps and things every summer, I am also going to have a job this summer at a camp and part time at a local store. I am wondering about how good my chances of getting in are, please respond if you have anything at all to say! Thanks!