What are my chances of qualifying for ISEF?

I am going to be a junior this fall and it will be my first time doing a science fair. I have done a research project before, but it was in a group and it wasn’t really laboratory research. However, I am also familiar with researching in a lab. I am looking to qualify for ISEF. I am worried that because it will be my first time doing a science fair, I may not qualify. I understand a lot of it is dependent on the judges and the affiliated fair, but I know a lot of kids who don’t qualify for ISEF even after going to science fair multiple times. I wanted to hear from students who have gone to ISEF: how many tries did it take you to qualify? How many tries did it take you to win an award at ISEF?

Follow up questions:
What do judges mostly look for in ISEF qualifying projects? What do judges look for in ISEF award-winning projects?

Also, is starting research the August before the actual fair too late (So if the affiliated fair is around March 2019 and ISEF is around May 2019, then I would start August 2018) ? If yes, what would be a good time to start research if the given dates for the fairs are the same?

(I’ve posted this discussion on College Admissions too but I haven’t been getting any responses)

You project has to be original research, creative, interesting, well presented, and hopefully have practical implications. You can absolutely qualify for ISEF in your first year, but I wouldn’t be thinking about ISEF until you actually have a fabulous idea for your project.

Thank you so much for your response @yucca10, I don’t know if my idea is the best, but it’s definitely original. Do you think it’s too late to start my research now if I wanna compete in 2019?

It’s generally not too late, but this very much depends on the project.