What are my chances?

Hey everyone,
I am finishing my junior year of high school in hopes to apply to the University of Virginia. I have a 33 act score and am taking 4 AP classes, planning on taking 5 AP classes next year. My unweighted gpa is a 3.8 and my weighted is a 4.2 (on the 4.0 scale respectively). I have played a varsity sport every year, am involved in my church, have been on sga, helped start a club, was the president of that club, and I have promising leadership roles for next year. The big problem with my resume is that I live out of state. Honestly, I would love a different perspective from anyone on what my chances are.
Thanks.

Your chances seem pretty good and your application seems strong except you may want your Sat to be a bit higher.