What are my chances?

I got 2 Cs during my sophomore year and 2 Cs during my junior year and I got a 3.75 unweighted GPA due to me taking extra college classes At Laney and UC Berkeley. I am the discus captain, I have been chamber wind and orchestra for the past 3 years. I also got the 8th grade ABRSM piano diploma. I also went to nationals for ping pong for 4 times. I got a 1500 SAT and 790 math II Subject test. For APs, I have average scores. Do you guys think I have a chance at UC Berkeley, UC LA, UC San Diego or UC Davis if I enter undeclared?

Your UC GPA capped weighted and fully weighted?

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

EC’s prior to HS are not considered.

I have a unweighted GPA of 3.75, weighted GPA of 3.82, and a Weight and Capped GPA of 3.82

Your SAT and Subject tests are very competitive but UC’s tend to be very GPA focused. You have some great EC’s and if you have equally good personal insight essays, it may bump up your chances. The 4 C’s are going to impact your chances at the UC’s since all the listed UC’s on your list had an average 4.0+ capped weighted. Also since your capped weighted and fully weighted, your HS course rigor may come into question.

I think you need to apply widely and make sure you have 2 solid safety schools.

UCD probably a 50/50 chance.
UCSD/UCB and UCLA would be Reach schools.

Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 (capped weighted) and not major specific:

UCB: 12.6%
UCLA: 11.7%
UCSD: 38.7%
UCSB: 53.6%
UCD: 56.5%
UCI: 52.1%
UCSC: 75.7%
UCR: 90.1%
UCM: 96.1%

2018 UC capped weighted GPA averages:
UCB: 4.23
UCLA: 4.23
UCSD: 4.16
UCSB: 4.13
UCI: 4.13
UCD: 4.11
UCSC: 3.96
UCR: 3.81
UCM: 3.71

2018 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT:

UCB: 1360-1540

UCLA: 1340-1540
UCSD: 1300-1520
UCSB: 1270-1500
UCD: 1220-1480
UCI: 1230-1490
UCSC: 1210-1450
UCR: 1130-1380
UCM: 1020-1280

Thanks! This was really helpful!

I forgot to say but I the class I got was a C was in Honors Algebra II and IB Biology. Everything else I got a A on. My HS course for sophomore year was Honors Algebra II, AP Chemistry, World history and World Literature, Chamber orchestra, Spanish 5/6 and Economics. My junior year was IB Biology, Math III, IB SL Spanish, IB English, IB history, concert band, chamber orchestra. I was just wondering if my rigor could have been an impact.

Competitive schools like the UC’s expect applicants to have good HS course rigor along with good grades. You are a very capable student proven by your SAT scores, but grades show consistency and can be a better indication of college success. All you can do is apply and make sure your college list includes several safeties, several matches and a few reaches.

Also, I forgot to say that my freshman grades were pretty bad with three Bs per semester. But, I improved a bit and had no Bs in both sophomore and junior year, would that impact my chances even if I got one C during each semester during sophomore and junior year?

Freshman grades are important in making sure you pass all a-g course requirements but no impact on your UC GPA. An upward grade trend is always good but when you are competing with 4.0+ applicants with equally good test scores, no C’s and a rigorous HS schedule, you need to be realistic and find some solid safety schools and match schools where you would be happy to attend before focusing on any Reach schools.