What are my possibilities???

Pleeease HELP!!!
I am a senior in High School and a California resident. I have a UC/CSU capped, weighted GPA of 3.43, a common app GPA of 3.56 and my SAT CR is 700 and Math is 670. The major I will be applying for is CS. I talked with my counselor to discuss my options and he said I would probably get into schools at the UCSC level. Although UCSC is considered an ok school I really want to go to UC Davis or Irvine. But I also wouldnt mind any top tier schools such as UCLA, USC, Cal Poly SLO, Carnegie Mellon, Cornell etc. but I know I dont have much of a chance. What are my realistic chances of getting into Irvine or Davis(or any other good UC or private school for that matter) for CS?
All responses are appreciated
Thank you!

Your counselor is giving you valid information especially since you plan to study CS which is very competitive at all the UC’s.
Just based on UC GPA, here are the Freshman 2015 admit rates for all UC’s (3.40-3.79). This does not take into account test scores, competitive majors, essays and EC’s.

UCB: 2%
UCLA: 3%
UCSD: 6%
UCD: 11%
UCSB: 13%
UCI: 16%
UCSC: 47%
UCR: 64%
UCM: 80%

Both UCI and UCD are Reach schools along with any top UC’s, Cal Poly SLO, CMU, Cornell and USC. I would apply to UCSC/UCR/UCM/SDSU/CSU Fullerton/CSULB/SJSU/Cal Poly Pomona where you would have the best chances for an admit. UCI/UCD are still worth an application.

Do you have any extenuating circumstances in regards to your lower than average grades you could address in the essay section? What about EC’s that are CS related?

What is your UW GPA 9-11?

http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/infocenter/freshman-admissions-summary

Thank you for the advice, I need to have some safety schools such as SDSU, and Pomona. Unfortunately I don’t even meet the eligibility index requirement for CS at SJSU, it is extremely competitive and as difficult as a private school.
Well, I dont have any explanation really for my grades, just the fact that I slacked off and didnt try enough during my sophomore year, not realizing the consequences my actions would have. But I did jump from 3.22-3.72 GPA in my last sem of junior year which was unfortunately too late to make much of an impact. I don’t have any CS related ECs but I have taken courses on my own time to learn languages such as Java, Pyhton, and R programming. In addition i do have over 200 hrs of community service, I am an Eagle Scout(which did take a lot of time throughout my high school career, my GPA spike came after I finished Eagle) and I also work a job 5 days a week which I started this school yr. My 9-11 unweighted GPA is 3.18.
Once again thanks for taking the time to respond.

PS is there really anything I can do at this point to increase my chances of getting into Davis, Irvine, or any other better school?

Ucsc is a high match, your odds are less than 50-50 for CS. UC 's weigh GPA over test scores and CS is extremely competitive.
CSU’s are strictly GPA x scores: Sdsu is another match. Cpp is a low match but not a safety.
Before worrying about reaches, you need to look for two safeties.
Having a rigorous course load junior and senior year will help for competitive universities but your grades still aren’t up to par for UC Davis or UC Irvine.
You can try to apply outside California - what’s your parents ’ budget for college?
But I don’t think you will find a better deal than cpp (as of now, our most likely choice, and well respected for stem.)

@gudboyyy8: I suggested SJSU as a possible Reach school for CS but if you look back on the EI thresholds for CS, in 2014 it was 4550, in 2015 it was 4300 and for 2106 it was 4550 again. The thresholds do fluctuate, so it is worth an application or you might want to consider Software Engineering which has a lower threshold overall.

I agree with @MYOS1634, the SDSU and the other Cal states listed are Match schools, but definitely not safeties. The CSU’s listed academically are great schools and as @MYOS1634 stated, well respected.

UCD/UCI along with all the UC’s are GPA focused as demonstrated by the Freshman admit stats I listed, so with your own admission that you did not take HS seriously, so it is a little late.

If you want a “better” school, you might want to consider attending a community college for 2 years and TAG to UCI or UCD. http://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/transfer/guarantee/

Where you go for undergrad will not define you. It is what you do with the opportunities you are given that help you succeed.

@MYOS1634 my parents said they are willing to pay a maximum of 40k per yr for my college education

Cal States and UC’s are within budget, but then you need to look for merit scholarships from private universities.