And if you are Asian from Korea, China, or India, in other words, ORM, the odds are reduced significantly. Calculation of probability of admission to the top colleges is not straight forward as a math problem.
OP, this thread may be of interest to you - top student was rejected from 15 schools, many of which appear on your list above. YMMV but be aware that scenarios like this do occur:
I would consider UCLA and McGill matches. Matches being a 50/50 shot. Btw your thinking on probability is a bit flawed. If you are a unhooked, non-urm, male from a densely populated states (Tri-state or California), applying for math, science or engineering, your probabilities are lower that a female from Idaho. As I said the college application process don’t work the way you would expect and you can’t apply general probability statistics to individuals.
I really don’t think that you can look at this from a purely statistical point of view-- it seems like you are still not understanding what everyone on here is trying to say. I understand that you have great scores and, in your words, have more tricks up your sleeve (whatever that means) but applying to all those schools does NOT mean you’re more likely to get accepted to them. These colleges have a very holistic admissions process- you can’t just predict your chances of getting into 2 or 3. Yes, there is a pretty good chance you’ll get into a few, but it is not a sure thing and you still need to include at least a few safeties.
Your state of residence is relevant for many reasons. It would help us give you advice because we could recommend state safety schools. Also, being from California vs. being from Hawaii or Montana can make a difference at most of these schools.
And yes, I think you are being a little arrogant. You came on here asking for advice, but none of that advice is going to mean anything if you won’t come back down to earth and be a little more realistic about this. Everyone on here is trying to help you!! Do you really want to be that kid who refused to be realistic about it and end up being rejected everywhere? I’m not saying this will happen to you, but better be safe than sorry!
The kid in post #21 sounds like a really thoughtful kid. But he was rejected.
I have a measurement of schools that I use when suggesting where/how people should apply:
1-2 reaches (Usually, a reach is a college where your stats are somewhat under average, and hopefully above the 25th percentile. However, when it comes to top-tier colleges, ALL are reaches, because they have such small acceptance rates and such high-achieving students. You don’t know exactly what may make you accepted or rejected, so most of the colleges on your list are reaches.)
2-4 matches (colleges where your stats are the average for that college, or slightly above. Hopefully these colleges also have good aid, although all colleges should be affordable.)
1-2 safeties (Colleges where you are notably above average application stats, and you can either afford it or get good aid. Colleges that have guaranteed admission are also safeties.)
Why is this, you may ask? Because so many of those schools are different, and applying to so many becomes hard, especially when they’re too schools like HYPMS (or whatever the acronym is). That’s a LOT of applications, and those colleges tend to have lots of individual essays and such.
I mean the guy did say he had colleges that werent on this list, maybe those are safeties. I do agree that it would be good to know what state they are from.
@alwadiya ok let’s start from the top…
Your list is composed entirely of reaches. For average students they are able to view Safety/Match/Reach in terns of where their stats fall in the school’s range. The same does not hold true for high ranking students looking at high ranking schools. You must factor in both the admit rates and your stats to get a better (but still really incomplete picture)
" I called the schools on my list “matches” because I am at the level academically of the students who get in there. I do recognize that the admission rates are low, although if you remove the large number of unqualified students who apply, my chance of getting in is presumably significantly higher than 8%, although still relatively low. “Match”, “reach” or whatever you want to call them, we’re just playing with words here."
No. This just isn’t true. Most students are extremely self-selecting when it comes to applying to schools, so there isn’t a “large” amount of unqualified students. It is often said that schools like Harvard/Yale/insert school of relative prestige here could randomly select who gets in and still get a similar class to the one they accepted. That is because of the students actually are of the same caliber, and these schools look at a lot of subjective values, not just objective values. So your chances actually aren’t a lot higher than 8%. For people with your profile, there really is no such thing as a match school, because the schools that your stats put you at will be reaches for everyone that applies because near everyone that applies is qualified. THEREFORE, CC veterans generally argue the following to students with great profiles:
Your safety is a school that you’d be happy to attend and likely to afford. Generally this is your state flagship or a school that offers you an automatic scholarship or entry. That’s the easiest way to get the safety covered.
Because of how hard the process is for top-scoring kids, matches are schools with relatively good names or programs for what you want to do, but your stats put you around the 75% mark. A LOT of these schools are yield-conscious which is why we consider them matches instead of safeties. Statistically, you could get in no problem, but these schools probably know you’re aiming higher.
Then the reaches are any school with sub-20% admit rates. It just is. Because they don’t lose anything by not picking you. You don’t provide them with something they need (save athletes, and to a lesser degree URMs/Legacies/Geographically Diverse people). They could pass on you and it would not cost them anything. Once you get to a score of 2200+ on the SAT it’s basically all the same, and their averages don’t suffer from denying you. So these schools simply aren’t safeties. This isn’t about “playing with words” this is about playing with your ego.
"it’s just logic: assuming I have an 8% of being admitted for each school of the 14 I am applying to, the probability that I get into none is 31%. Given that my credentials are quite strong, let’s say I have more like a 15% chance of admission for each of the 14 schools - that makes the probability of getting into none 10%. "
That’s faulty logic. AP Stats reasoning doesn’t apply to college admissions. You don’t view admissions in terms of getting into at least one school, you view it in terms of getting into that specific school. Each school has a specific class it’s trying to establish, and much of admissions is simply how you fit into that class. Your chance really isn’t 15% for school, but if you want to believe that, that’s on you.
I’m sure you’ll get into at least a few schools on your list, but you’re not really approaching admissions the right way.
Your state matters for a lot of schools because safeties generally are the schools in your state. And UCs also have different chances depending on whether you are in or out of state
And yes, you come off as really arrogant and hopefully you don’t come off like that in your essays, cause that will affect your chances.
The effect isn’t like rolling dice, in that out of 20 rolls you have some calculable expectation or rolling a six.
In fact, it may be exactly the opposite.
The same thing that causes one admissions counselor to say “no” is quite possibly going to draw the same reaction for others.
Edit:
A safety … Find a school with a program you like and a campus you like where the middle fifty tops out 4-5 ACT points below your score.
Honestly I would like to know why people are saying I come off as arrogant? Arrogant means having or revealing an exaggerated sense of one’s own importance or abilities. I have simply said my credentials are strong and at the level of the places I’m applying to - not that they are out of this world are better than anyone else’s…
Secondly now you guys are telling me that gender/what state I live in/my race matters? What is this? If that is true then I don’t think I will go to college in the U.S because that sounds to me like blatant discrimination… How is that even legal!!!
Top women STEM applicants are rarer and correspondingly, may get in over equally talented applicants. People are asking if you live in a US state to see if a flagship college in that state might be a great match for you. Menloparkmom’s example of a North Dakota resident is true. If Stanford receives 500 great applicants from California and 1 equally great one from North Dakota for 50 spots, you can be sure that 49 go to CA applicants ant the ND applicant gets in too. It’s called “geographic diversity”
Are you an international applicant? If so, then know that you face tougher odds due to an even harder applicant pool.
@alwadiya I think people are reacting like this because you asked for advice yet every time someone gives you constructive criticism you brush it off. If you really want advice, then actually listen to what people are saying to you-- if not, what’s even the point of posting here?
In regards to your second question- sorry that’s how it works. If you don’t know that you’re not very well informed about the admissions process. I don’t know if I would call trying to build a geographic and culturally diverse class “discrimination” but there are whole forums on here discussing that. If you want to complain about it that’s fine, but at the end of the day that’s how a lot of colleges work. Are you an international student or is there some other reason you don’t think state of residence is relevant?? If you are international getting into these colleges is a lot harder.
Once again, no one on here is trying to put you down-- but if you want good advice you need to help us understand things other than the fact that you’re interested in math and science. Stop being so defensive and try to take to heart what everyone is telling you
I think you need to have some cultural normalisation (or “normailzation” as we spell it in the US). Your Counselour ()or “counselor” as we spell it in the US) may have limited knowledge of the subjective nature of US admissions.
You are not intending to sound arrogant, I am sure, but from a style perspective, to a US reader, this sounds pompous and entitled, as if you are ‘above it all’ and have everything all sewn up:
I doubt that you mean it that way, but that is how it sounds to a US reader.
McGill or U of Toronto may be good safeties. Some of the US Women’s colleges may be good bets for you (if you are female).
And, of course, I am sure you have gone back and looked up the difference between Poisson statistics and Lorenzian. 
A re-calibration is in order, accounting for “soft” variables, in your acceptance likelihood. Many say that acceptance of 8% is more like 4% when all the legacy, athletic recruits, URMs, etc. are considered. So, presumably your “doubling” because you are just so much better than the other applicants still puts you at 8%.
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You will likely be happier staying in your home country.
This may not be understood by non-Americans but in general, the topmost US colleges don’t simply rank all applicants on an excel spreadsheet and make offers to numbers 1 to 2,100. Many colleges (and most topmost ones) see their roles in greater society to bring together diverse students who meet a minimum criteria – not solely those who score highest on tests. This is part of the American “melting pot”.
You need to learn admission speak in this country. Calling all the reach schools matches is sort of arrogant. Maybe ignorant too.
@alwadiya Yes, you do come across as arrogant. Perhaps you didn’t intend to, but regardless, that’s how you come across.
@alwadiya, I will be studying science/math at Yale (Class of 2019) and appreciate your effort to find reach, match, and safety universities. I was in your place last year. For reference, I am a US male with no hooks – not URM, not from geographically underrepresented region, not a legacy, not a recruited athlete (although I was on 3 varsity sports),
and here are my academic stats, list, and results:
SAT, single/only sitting, Junior year: 2330 --> 800 M, 780 W, 750 CR
National Merit Finalist (PSAT of 233, Sophomore year)
SAT II: single/only sitting, Junior year: 800 Math 2, 800 Chemistry, 800 French
ACT: did not take
Unweighted GPA (out of 4.0): 4.0
AP: Calculus BC (5), Chemistry (5), Physics C Mechanics (5), Physics C E&M (5), French (5)
5 Reaches: Yale (accepted), UPenn (accepted), MIT (waitlisted, did not accept/declined waitlist, as I preferred Yale), Harvard (rejected), Princeton (rejected);
2 Matches: Johns Hopkins (accepted), Brandeis (accepted, Justice Brandeis merit scholarship); and
1 Safety: RPI (accepted, Leadership merit scholarship)
Completing these eight applications was manageable, and I researched them well.
Wishing you the best of luck.
The Big Ten schools (U Mich, Northwestern, UIUC, Wisconsin, Purdue and Minnesota, namely) are really strong in Math and Science.
Let’s remove Northwestern now though – it’s as much of a reach as some of the schools on your list.
So:
U Mich
UIUC
Wisconsin
Purdue
Minnesota
These are not safeties for anyone OOS, but if you have a strong application you should get in somewhere. And they all are really great for what you want. Minnesota has the lowest OOS price tag.