“To get in ED unhooked at a tippy top school you do need to be cream of the crop, those schools aren’t going to lower their standards just because applicants love them. But for other highly regarded schools that are not quite top, top, I bet some kids sneak through at ED with a solid but not top app.”
The true tippy-top (HYPSM) don’t even have to bother with ED, so it is moot.
For any school offering ED, that is how they want applicants to apply, if they are financially capable of doing so. Regardless of how much ED benefits the applicant, ED always benefits the institution.
Middlebury’s ED rate was 45% this year. I find that amazing.