Meant it as an example, @BrownParent, but I don’t think I worded it correctly.
Each URM kid is so different with varied ethnicities and backgrounds so, what one URM has, another one might have not. I agree with @DrGoogle that it is all in the odds.
OP: Each class that MIT builds will be different and URM status might not be considered if the rest of the “vitae” adds something to the class and is great.
I don’t think you should pin your hopes on being URM to get admission into an elite school; that seems to be the point of the post, (I think?) finding schools that value your URM status for admission?
OP your application, academics, activities should speak for you. If the school happens to need you for “diversity” then it might sway a vote, but you can’t assume that the ethnicity will give you better chances.