UW Madison can be a match depending on 1° are you and your friend instate or are you applying from OOS? 2° what major is she applying to (CS or Engineering would be different from CALS) 3° are her test scores 1450+ or 32+, or not? 4° if you school has Naviance, does it indicate students with her profile have consistently been admitted for the past 3 years? 5° Has she run the NPC and been told by her family that they can afford the net cost from income and savings?
You can’t really look at the overall acceptance rate at a school like Madison because there is such a range between the colleges. We have the same deal in Minnesota. My parents feel U of M - TC should be an “easy in” for my son based on what they know about other kids that just got in, but while a couple colleges in the university he would be an easy in, the one he wants…pretty much 50/50 shot.