Responding to @ClaremontMom, perhaps I should be more specific to @WalknOnEggShells query. In the fall of 2016 we will have 3 children in undergraduate school at the same time. When we had 1 in 2015-2016 our EFC was around $52k. With 3 in 2016-2017 or EFC is $15k. This number is generated solely by the FAFSA and has nothing to do with the CSS Profile or with any NPC. As WalkOnEggShells noted, the EFC is more accurately described as an MFC. This is because schools view the EFC, as well as the NPC results, as guidelines, not definitive obligations to provide aid.
Based on the foregoing, D1, at a top OSS with a projected COA of close to $60k, has to put up approximately $10k in loans and work study + 40% of our total EFC (3 X $15k = $45k) or an additional $20k. The school offered us $24k in grant aid, about 80% of the EFC-based projected need, with any difference from a recommended PLUS loan. D2, at a top art school with a projected COA of again close to $60k, puts up the aforementioned $10k + 1/3 of our total EFC for a total of $25k. The school offered $25k, about 70% of what our EFC supposedly ‘deserves’, leaving $10k to our own resources. S1 is a recruited athlete at a school that does not give athletic scholarships and which has a COA in excess of $70k. That school gave $52k in grant aid, more than 200% of our projected “need” + $4k in work study.
These examples are from the schools to which our children will attend in 2016-20017. The financial aid awards from all of the schools to which they were accepted during the admissions process ran the gamut from full, EFC-calculated aid to absolutely nothing. One school started with the standard $10k in loans and work study, added our family contribution of $15k, and then recommended that we gain the balance (nearly $32k) in the form of a PLUS loan, I.e., the school offered absolutely no money out of its own pocket.
The takeaways from these examples are: (1) Schools will not absolutely honor the projected entitled need based on the EFC/NPC; (2) If you are lucky, they will come close; (3) OSS are less likely to meet this need and, in any case, will apply a higher percentage when calculating your EFC, and (4) If your kid is a recruited athlete, musician, artist or anything else, thank your lucky stars!
As you surmise, the first year is kind of a bye in terms of identifying exactly how much we are expending for college. D1 and D2’s schools do not know that S1’s school is basically giving him a full ride. Next year will be different. Not quite sure how that will all play out, but am hopeful, with some careful planning, that we can perhaps preserve more than less…
My final advice on this is NEGOTIATE. You have to be realistic in knowing the strength of your hand, but the ability of schools to give financial aid changes as other applicants accept and, more importantly, decline offers of admission. Your child was accepted at each school for a reason. At some your child will be more valuable than others, but the fact remains your child is a product in demand by consumers. Use that leverage carefully and to the best of your advantage.