What is my chance of not getting rejected everywhere?

<p>Since the chance of my getting accepted at any one school is very low, the better question is, what is the chance I will get accepted to at least one of the following colleges as a sophomore transfer?</p>

<p>Amherst
Brown
Columbia
Cornell
Dartmouth
Harvard
Stanford
UPenn
Yale
Williams</p>

<p>I have already been accepted to UNC Chapel Hill, but I probably will have difficulty affording it. These are my best bet, because they have financial aid available.</p>

<p>High school:
-GPA: 4.0
-Rank: Salutatorian (no one shares rank, large class)
-SAT: 2200
All AP classes with good scores</p>

<p>College:
-3.83 GPA, at a top Canadian university that is a grade deflator (class averages curved down to 2.6-2.7, which shows on my transcript)
-Founded a student group that reflects my interests at the university.</p>

<p>Activities:
-Martial Arts, 8 years in TKD and Muay Thai (trained in the second best gym in Canada)
-Piano, 10 years, sixth grade Royal Conservatory of Music, won some music festivals, etc.
-Private tutoring: I have tutored eight high school subjects, and I have three students right now
-Volunteering at the hospital: volunteered for a few months when I thought that I wanted to be a surgeon. I changed my mind and stopped.</p>

<p>Recommendations:
Recommendation #1: Fantastic--from a professor that went to Berkeley. She gave me some top 1% checkmarks, including productive class discussion (which top colleges love).
Recommendation #2: I'm not sure. I know that it was good, but it's not my favorite subject and my professor is a genius (PhD from Princeton), so I don't think I got really high check-marks except perhaps in motivation, self-confidence, etc. Though, I did get 100% on his midterm a few days before he did the rec, so maybe he got really impressed at that time.</p>

<p>Essays:
I didn't think that they were good initially, but reading other people's application essays, I think that they are good. They are very genuine, simple, and to the point. I also shared some neat experiences from my past, including training at my muay thai gym which was the most brutal thing I have ever done.</p>

<p>Other:
Race: White
Sex: Male
Major: Math</p>

<p>I’m sure you’ll get into at least one of them.</p>

<p>A math major should be able to figure it our under basic probability assumptive analysis.
Make an assumption of your acceptance % per school and then total. The farther you can go over 100% the better. But remember since it’s assumptive is not guaranteed. It is only a projection.</p>

<p>Haha sosomenza, I actually did that. If I assume I have a 5% chance at each one, it comes out to 40% :/</p>

<p>I would be very surprised if you didn’t get accepted into at least one of them.</p>

<p>Nearly 50-50. It shows the power of casting a wide net. GL</p>

<p>Can anyone else chance me?</p>

<p>Just a couple more responses is all I’m asking for.</p>

<p>…</p>

<p>Bumppppppp</p>

<p>almost 100% sure youll get into AT LEAST one</p>

<p>Don’t expect to get into all of them because all of the schools you listed are very selective and even students with perfect GPA and test scores still get rejected! On that note, you will get into at least one if not then more than that!</p>

<p>The encouragement that I am getting is lifting my spirits, but I am still a little skeptical. Do you guys know how low the transfer rates to these schools are?</p>

<p>All I need to do is get accepted to one. Just one.</p>