For us, I feel it’s been the opposite. Whereas prior to my D22 applying last fall, we probably had a false sense that she would be in the running at top schools given her academic and EC record, thanks to hanging out on CC we now hold a more realistic view (i.e., it would be nice if she gets an acceptance at the end of this month, but we’re not expecting it and will be fine if she doesn’t) and, owing to D22’s acceptances from a couple of schools she would be very happy to attend, feel a bit less vested/more removed (the long wait for decisions has also contributed to this feeling).
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For years (pre-pandemic) we used to say the way to get increased uptake on flu shots each year was to have a shortage.
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I agree that the more time someone spends on CC, reading a variety of posts, the more they will realize the extreme odds of being accepted into the highly competitive/selective universities.
At the same time, however, I notice that most initial posters or people in the chance me/match me threads are those who are highly focused on the Top x schools and who see that as the extent of possible colleges to attend. If they then branch out to other threads and other parts of the community, then I think that they realize the long odds and the importance of a balanced list. But I think that others either feel a sense of resentment or incredulity that people think their incredibly accomplished child isn’t a lock for somewhere in the Top X, and either step away or don’t engage further.
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I’ve been attacked (not physically, but in PM’s) when I cite the study that showed that U Wisconsin has the highest number of Fortune 1000 CEO’s in the country. (or at least it did the year the study was done). Parents are LITERALLY taking out a second mortgage, raiding their retirement fund, etc. because Johnny or Susie wants a career in business and some magazine claimed that Villanova or BC or Georgetown or Wharton undergrad is the “only” way to go for a kid interested in business.
So yeah, they step away. Villanova is a fine school but if you are instate for Wisconsin, Michigan, Rutgers, U Mass, handicapping your financial future for some vague desire to study “business” seems crazy to me…but I am not very popular here!
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I do think some of the responses can come across as heavy-handed, especially when it is the kid who is the OP. I’m not sure if the scared straight approach is always necessary to get the point across that certain schools are a reach for everyone, no matter the stats.
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That’s a fair point. For us, I think we’ve gradually managed to de-personalize it (although I suspect it will still hurt if my D22 gets dinged by all of the schools) as we’ve come understand the many factors involved that are outside of her control.
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What do you think is a good approach to reach families/students that certain schools are unlikely for anyone?
As evidenced by the number of times I’ve liked your posts, you’re definitely pretty popular with me!
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I enjoy your posts! Some of my favorites!
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My wife has said repeatedly that once you get to a certain level school the quality of the education will be comparable (is financial accounting 101 different at the #4 and #24 business schools any different?), and prospective students should focus on 1. what they want to do, 2. where they want to be geographically, 3. and what network they want to access. If you want to be an engineer in Silicon Valley focus on Stanford, CalTech and UC Berkeley. If you want to work in the auto industry look at UofM, Kettering and MSU. I think she is on to something. To her list I would add 1. whether they can afford the school and 2. what they are looking for in terms of the elusive “fit” - size, rural vs city, culture, stress level, etc.
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great point about location. In silicon valley after Stanford, Santa Clara is the biggest source of students for hire.
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I didn’t spell out but I agree with you and @ucbalumnus that students and their families have to find colleges that are within their financial constraints. I always tell those who ask for my opinion/advice that their first step should be to filter out colleges that are unsuitable for them financially. The filter should be customized based on their own financial circumstances. If a student needs financial aid, it shouldn’t be their secondary consideration. There’s enough variability in each college’s financial aid policy to warrant a very close examination of its policy in relationship to an applicant’s particular situation. If they run a college’s NPC as they should, they need to run it for a few different scenarios to get not only the outputs but also the sensitivities to various parameters they input.
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What has the effect been on admission percentages and yield? All else equal, yields must be declining, right?
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At my local HS this year was the lowest % acceptance into main campus state school ever & highest # of applicants. Fabulous & previously safe students branched. The increase in #s means nothing is the same & no guarantees anymore. It’s kind of nuts.
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It depends at which college. Some example numbers are below from IPEDS. Admit rate went down substantially at the most selective colleges, but increased slightly at all colleges. Yield went up at the most selective colleges, but decreased substantially at all colleges. By both metrics, the most selective colleges moved in the opposite direction as colleges overall.
One could also roughly estimate average applications per student as 1/35% = 2.9 acceptances per student. 2.9 / 68% = 4.2 applications per student. Comparing 2009 to 2019, the estimation is 3.3 applications per student in 2009 → 4.2 applications per student in 2019.
All Available 4-Year Colleges (many do not report this information)
Average Admit Rate 2009 → 2019 : 66% → 68%
Average Yield 2009 → 2019: 46% → 35%
58 of the Most Selective Colleges
Average Admit Rate 2009 → 2019: 24% → 14%
Average Yield 2009 → 2019: 44% → 50%
Biggest Movers Admit Rate: (among 58 most selective)
Chicago: Admit Rate: 27% → 6%, Yield: 36% → 81%
Colby: Admit Rate: 34% → 10%, Yield: 31% → 40%
Northwestern: Admit Rate: 26% → 9%, Yield: 32% → 55%
GeorgiaTech: Admit Rate: 61% → 21%, Yield: 42% → 41%
Biggest Movers Yield: (among 58 most selective)
Tulane: Admit Rate: 26% → 13%, Yield: 14% → 34%
Chicago: Admit Rate: 27% → 6%, Yield: 36% → 81%
Northwestern: Admit Rate: 26% → 9%, Yield: 32% → 55%
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This is due to heavy reliance on ED admissions.
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Note that the colleges that had the largest increase in yield also were among those that had the largest decrease in admit rate. 3 of the factors that influence yield include selectivity, early admission policies, and for lack of a better word uniqueness. By “uniqueness”, I mean colleges like BYU or USAFA. There is no good similar alternative, which leads to very high yields – as high or higher than Harvard/Stanford.
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I think you meant “some” California parents and students. Not only do we have a lot of great in-state education options, but the industries that grow up around the schools, particularly the UCs, are super important for the economy. UCSD is a great example of that.
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Jack,
Congrats to your son. My daughter was accepted at Purdue, loved our time in West Lafayette this summer, but is now questioning her interest considering the FYE vs direct admit with every other school. MomofBoiler1 has been so nice to answer our questions, so I wanted give a shout out to her. D22 knows it’s a great school and honored to have been accepted, just concerned that she would get there, do fairly well, but not get into Aero or MechE. In fairness to her and Purdue, despite her intense review of the schools she missed the FYE vs direct admit situation. It’s not entirely off the table, yet.
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And over 100 community colleges, which have generally well defined and well used transfer pathways to UCs and CSUs, in addition to the usual associates degree and other course work one expects to find at community colleges.
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Thank you for also pointing out the wonderful California CC system.
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