UNC CH and W&M are both state schools, so it really depends what state you are from. As noted elsewhere in this thread, W&M gives very little merit aid; they just don’t spend their endowment that way, especially not for OOS students. You might get a Monroe scholar grant for $3K but that doesn’t count against tuition.
Rochester’s not a bad bet here - look through the RD response threads this year to get a feel for the money they offered as merit aid. But remember to weigh that against the NPC - if a school offers 15K merit but your base cost is 65K, you still need 200K over 4 years and you can probably find a really good alternative that would give you a much better price in a slightly lower prestige tier.