Going to be honest, I think GPA is pretty irrelevant if you have 3.8 or above, except at a few state schools like UCs. So I don’t generally think it comes into play unles it is low. Colleges mislead students on this point, in my opinion.
Rice only accepts 15% of applicants. CMU often surprises me at who they don’t accept. That is why I think they aren’t matches, although CMU maybe a high match.