What's my chance of getting into highly competitive colleges?

Freshmen year me was a lot different than sophomore/current junior year me, and so I got really bad grades, lol. Right now, I have a total weighted GPA of 3.7544, which is the GPA that has freshmen year and sophomore year grades. If I manage to get all As both semesters of junior year taking 4 APs, 1 reg language, and newspaper (reg), and all As senior first semester (4 APs, 1 reg class newspaper), is my GPA still screwed? i’m looking to apply to pretty competitive colleges, but at the beginning of my junior year, i have a 3.7544.

However, I also did get a 1560 on the new SAT November of my sophomore year, and my transcript shows an upward trend from freshmen year to sophomore year, and I’d say my extracurriculars are really solid, with me having directed leadership conferences for 400+ people, interning for an assemblywoman (who agreed to write me my letter of rec), writing bills through legislation, etc. etc.

im just wondering because everyone in my family tells me no matter how good my ec gets, my gpa is still already screwed, but i dont know. im calculating that by senior year 1st semester, if i get all As, I can end with a 4.07 GPA first semester, but i am still unsure of my own calculations.

Also I am asian, and i know that highkey hurts my college admissions, but im also working towards poli sci and not STEM, so its interesting.

You are not screwed if you get As junior year and first semester senior year. You want at least a 3.8 UW and to be in the top 10% of your class. Your SAT score is amazing. Your ECs sound good. Make sure you can build a cohesive narrative throughout your application so admissions officers can see what you are interested in.