<p>Just one person's opinion, but based on all the info you just shared, I say let her do the ED. Your relationship is important and, as you say, she may blame you if she is rejected RD, never knowing how much the ED boost would have been. That would be a heavy burden for both of you.</p>
<p>The worst that can happen is that it turns out to be the wrong place and she can transfer. Many do, many have; myself included. </p>
<p>Although she may "seem" irrational, NYU is a strong school. It's not as though she's choosing a school whose academics are inadequate, even if it seems she's not using academics as a criterion. Based on the schools she's visited, it's clear she/you have done an academic sifting early on. </p>
<p>If she is at a school whose location she likes, she will endeavor to take advantage of all that it, and the location, offers. If she is at a school whose location she resents, she may fight against the experience.</p>
<p>Anyway, you can silently root for ED deferral, knowing that most kids who suffer that "tragedy" go on to be very happy either at the ED school when accepted later, or at some other school they previously thought inferior.</p>
<p>Key issue: although it sounds that she is a strong candidate academically, there is not a safety school on the list that I can see except BU (?). That's something which needs to be addressed. I would hope she would develop her "what if I don't get in?" strategy now, as it seems that working on applications after an ED deferral or rejection is a very difficulat process.</p>