It could make a HUGE difference, depending on your baseline SES. Someone coming from an upper or upper-middle class background could conceivably get away with attending a directional state college because their accumulated human capital (which would include everything from work ethic, communications skills to family connections) would probably carry them forward in life. OTOH, someone who is first gen or from a lower middle class background could disproportionately benefit from the employer/grad school signaling that attending a prestigious college or university confers (and, let’s face it, it probably doesn’t hurt being surrounded by a lot of warm, friendly, high stats kids) along with one added benefit: With generous financial aid, it wouldn’t cost them any more than attending that same directional state college. Bottom line: run the net price calculators on both types of colleges.